In 2019, the Regional Anticipatory Action Working Group (RAAWG) was founded by its secretariat members Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) to strengthen inter-agency efforts towards regional Anticipatory Action for climate shocks in Southern Africa. Anticipatory Action is designed to reduce the humanitarian impacts of a forecast hazard and is implemented before the most acute impacts of an event are felt. When a pre-defined trigger threshold for drought impact is forecasted, the RAAWG works closely with local government and stakeholders to implement Anticipatory Actions such as early warning messages, cash transfers, the provision of drought-resistant seeds, agricultural training, and improving water sources. RAAWG partners closely with the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) on this front. SADC formally endorsed anticipatory action programming through the adoption of the SADC Maputo Declaration on Bridging the Gap between Early Warning and Early Action in 2022.

The previous El Niño event in 2015–2016 caused the worst drought in 35 years for much of southern Africa. In 2015-2016, humanitarian relief was largely provided post-impact as part of a declaration of emergency once the scale of the disaster became clear. By contrast, RAAWG members activated Anticipatory Action in eSwatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe as early as July 2023 based on seasonal forecasts, months ahead of when peak impacts were forecast. Collectively, RAAWG reached more than two million people and unlocked close to USD31 million in anticipatory finance. Next to RAAWG’s secretariat members WFP, FAO, and IFRC, drought anticipatory actions were supported by UN OCHA, START Network, Save the Children International, Welthungerhilfe and World Vision International. RAAWG-supported activations ahead of the 2023-2024 forecast impacts represent the largest funding of anticipatory assistance in Southern Africa, and the largest number of parallel activations in a region to date.

Read the counterfactual analysis here.