The Averted Disaster Award will grant an independent counterfactual analysis to the top 5 projects

Singapore – The leading 5 interventions nominated for The Averted Disaster Award’s 2024 edition will be honored with an independent counterfactual analysis.

Counterfactual analysis stands out as an indispensable tool in gauging the effectiveness of  disaster prevention strategies. This method provides a unique lens through which evaluators can establish causal relationships between interventions and outcomes.

The essence of ‘counterfactual’ lies in its ability to unveil what would have happened to beneficiaries in the absence of a particular intervention. This process involves estimating impact by comparing outcomes derived from the counterfactual scenario with those observed under the actual intervention.

Increasingly, counterfactual analysis is gaining prominence in the field of disaster risk management. This method empowers practitioners to navigate the spectrum of potential outcomes influenced by highly uncertain and random variables in a growing number of applications including earthquakes, climate change, and volcanic eruptions.

“We use counterfactuals to imagine and quantify the disasters that could have been” says Dr. David Lallemant, Assistant Professor at the Earth Observatory of Singapore at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “Counterfactual Analysis looks beyond immediate visible outcomes and considers the “what if” scenarios” in order to explore more broadly the true impact of a disaster risk intervention. For example: What if the school earthquake retrofit program had not been implemented? How many schools would have collapsed? How many more people would have been affected? In so doing we can highlight the fact that the seemingly ordinary functioning of buildings and infrastructure in the face of floods, earthquakes and typhoons, is in fact extraordinary and worth celebrating.”

The counterfactual analysis will be conducted at Nanyang Technological University, by PhD and Associate Professor, Susanna Jenkins. Prof. Jenkins has over 20 years of applied experience as a Risk Analyst in the field of Disaster Risk Management and Natural Hazards. 

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore is renowned for its commitment to cutting-edge research and innovation. Among its notable research entities is the Disaster Analytics for Society Lab (DASL). DASL focuses on harnessing advanced analytics and technology to address global challenges related to natural and man-made disasters. The lab emphasizes interdisciplinary collaboration, bringing together experts from fields such as data science, engineering, and social sciences to develop innovative solutions for disaster management. Through its research initiatives, DASL aims to enhance society’s resilience and response capabilities in the face of emergencies. NTU’s dedication to fostering impactful research, coupled with DASL’s mission to leverage data analytics for societal benefit, reflects the university’s commitment to addressing critical issues on a global scale.

The findings of Prof. Jenkins’ analysis will be captured in a report that will include:

• Overview of the intervention background, development, features and future.
• Counterfactual analysis or narrative highlighting the benefits and “what if” scenarios related to the intervention. *The risk analyst will discuss the counterfactual with each applicant and engage with them on the approach and outcome while remaining independent.
• Provide at least two figures/schematics to visually support the analysis

What are the benefits of receiving a free independent counterfactual analysis for your intervention or organization?

Having an independent counterfactual analysis provides multiple benefits:

• Trusted Outcomes:  Having the analysis conducted by a highly credentialed risk analyst at a trusted university known for its thought leadership in the field of disaster risk management ensures that the assumptions used are evidence based and rooted in reality.  
• Enhanced Understanding of Intervention Impact: Independent counterfactual analysis will allow the organization to validate and potentially enhance the understanding of measurable impact for the nominated project. Impact data and proposed counterfactual metrics provided in the application will be validated as part of the counterfactual analysis and additional impact metrics or narratives may be added to provide a clear message on the benefits of the intervention.
• Informed Decision-Making: The insights gained from the counterfactual analysis can influence future decision-making processes within the organization, helping to amplify effective strategies.
• Clear Snapshot of Performance:  A counterfactual analysis allows stakeholders to assess the project’s performance against alternative scenarios and expectations. It is a clear snapshot that can be shared with leadership, donors or other decision makers as a way to make convincing arguments about the benefits of your intervention that may not be easily seen.

This can be a highly effective tool for influencing decision makers and the community at large to understand the full impact and benefit of disaster risk interventions. 

New Judging Process

The addition of an independent counterfactual analysis will now be incorporated into the Averted Disaster Award judging process in the following way:

February 2nd, 2024: Applications Due

February: Judges will review and score all applications to determine the Top 5

March: Top 5 applicants notified

March-April: Counterfactual analysis conducted by independent risk analyst. Risk analyst will use the information from the original application as well as direct communication with the applicant for any additional information needed.

*Applicants must be available and provide requested information during this time frame in order to be eligible to receive the final counterfactual narrative.

May: Judges review the independent counterfactual narrative for the Top 5 applicants and factor this analysis together with the originally submitted application to determine the final winner.

June: Winner notified

Singapore – The Averted Disaster Award, dedicated to acknowledging successful disaster mitigation efforts worldwide, has officially launched its third call for nominations.  

Every year, natural disasters wreak havoc, claiming lives, devastating communities, and imposing substantial economic costs on the global economy. Yet, behind the scenes, disaster risk professionals and organizations work tirelessly to mitigate these catastrophic events. While media coverage often focuses on disasters, it rarely sheds light on successes; the structures saved due to earthquake-resistant building codes, the wildfires averted through effective forest management, or the lives spared thanks to timely evacuations. Disaster risk management (DRM) often faces the paradox that its failures are highly visible, while its successes go unnoticed.  

The Averted Disaster Award’s purpose is to spotlight achievements in DRM that often go unnoticed as a result of their success.  Applications are welcome from individuals, project teams, and organizations of all sizes, across various regions and industries.  The nominator does not need to have been directly involved in the intervention. Submission deadline is January 12, 2024. 

Interventions take many forms. The most obvious interventions are structural in nature, such as sea-walls or reinforced bridges. Certain activities, such as controlled forest burns, count as interventions too, since they reduce future wildfire risk. Financial products that manage disaster risk, such as flood insurance schemes, count as interventions as well. Interventions can also occur at the individual or community scale, where, for example, placing sandbags to protect critical locations such as grocery stores or hospitals can ensure that the community as a whole can recover more quickly from flash floods. It is important to keep in mind that interventions are proactive and not reactive: interventions are generally pre-meditated and implemented before the disaster occurs. 

The winning submission receives travel, accommodations and a complimentary ticket for one person to attend Understanding Risk 2024, in Tokyo Japan where the intervention will be announced as the winner and celebrated during a session.  Understanding Risk is the world’s largest forum for perspectives and innovations in global DRM.  Additionally, a documentary short film will be developed to showcase the intervention and featured prominently in ADA media and communications content. 

The Averted Disaster Award Selection Committee is composed of thought leaders and practitioners in the field of DRM.   Selection Committee members apply their expertise without bias to review applications and collaborate to determine the shortlist of finalists and winner of the ADA prize. Selection Committee members include: Shanna N. Mcclain. PHD (NASA, Disasters Program Manager), David Lallemant. PHD (Head of Disaster Analytics for Society Lab at Nanyang Technological University and the Earth Observatory of Singapore), Stéphane Hallegatte (Senior Climate Change Adviser at World Bank), and Dr. Olivia Jensen (Lead Scientist, LRF Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk, National University of Singapore). 

Judges assess each application against the following criteria: 1) level of impact of the disaster averted, 2) quality of evidence based results, 3) potential to replicate adapt and scale, 4) levels of inclusivity, equity and focus on the most vulnerable, 5) narrative clarity and contribution to understanding risk and risk mitigation.  The panel considers all case summaries submitted by the deadline, and choose the one that makes the best case for an effective disaster mitigation intervention.  

To date, two organizations have received the Averted Disaster Award. In 2022, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society was honored for its work implementing a forecast-based financing framework for vulnerable communities in Bangladesh during successive climatic events from May-July 2020. Recently, in October, The Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications earned recognition for its work integrating landslide early warning technology and engaging communities for emergency preparedness and resilience in the Himalayas & Western Ghats regions of India. 

The ADA has also recognized the efforts of other organizations worldwide, including Aga Khan Agency for Habitat (Pakistan), Build Change (Philippines), University of the Philippines Resilience Institute for their Project NOAH, GeoHazards International for their project Landslide Safety Action Plan (India), BBC Media (Kenya), and Prepared International (Jordan, Israel, and Palestine). In the two years of ADA’s existence, nominations have been received for projects from all regions of the world. To discover some of these successful interventions, click here. 

About the Averted Disaster Award 

The Averted Disaster Award recognizes proactive interventions implemented around the world that help ensure that communities continue to function, thrive, and recover quickly in the face of disaster risk. The Averted Disaster Award is an initiative of the Understanding Risk community and is supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). 

For more information concerning the ADA, or if you or your company is interested in supporting the Averted Disaster Award, please contact info@averteddisasteraward.org 

Berlin, Germany, October 12, 2023 – The Averted Disaster Award (ADA) today named the Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications as the winner of the 2023 ADA award for outstanding Disaster Risk Management (DRM) intervention. This prestigious recognition was announced at the 11th Global Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action, held in Berlin, during a three-day conference. Created in December 2021, the Averted Disaster Award is an annual competition that seeks to bring visibility to successful DRM programs and policies around the world.

The Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications

The Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications earned the recognition for their work integrating landslide early warning technology and engaging communities for emergency preparedness and resilience in the Himalayas & Western Ghats regions of India. The organization has effectively predicted landslides and saved lives through their communication and emergency training within affected communities. The Amrita Center deployed the world’s first wireless sensor network for landslide monitoring and early warning in Munnar, Western Ghats, and Sikkim, Himalayas. Amrita developed a strategy predicated on bridging the gap between technology and impacted communities. Scientists worked with community members to understand the challenges of living in landslide prone areas and collaborated and co-designed solutions with them. The community members hold social responsibility and actively participate in taking steps for monitoring and reacting when landslide dangers are imminent. The collaborative approach resulted in better technology that protects communities and saves lives. While the number of landslides in the region has increased in recent years, countless lives have been saved as a result of their early warnings and community engagement.

David Lallemant, co-founder of the ADA and an Assistant Professor at Nanyang Technological University, expressed, “The Averted Disaster Award’s objective is to bring attention to effective risk reduction interventions that often go unnoticed. India, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, faces a significant landslide threat in areas like Munnar and its surroundings. With the Averted Disaster Award, our aim is to illuminate impactful initiatives such as this one, facilitating their replication, adaptation, and scaling in communities that require them.”

Shanna McClain, Disasters Program Manager at NASA, ADA Selection Committee Member and host of the award ceremony said, “Amrita’s collaborative approach bringing together scientists and the community is an example of best practice in developing effective disaster risk technology.” McClain added, “When at-risk communities are engaged as implementing partners from the outset, they are more likely to follow emergency guidance and develop long-term community resilience.”

The award ceremony featured the premier of a short documentary film titled “Living Without Fear”, which highlights the achievements of the award-winning organization. The documentary can be viewed by clicking on the following link.

The ADA also announced today the Runner-up recipient of the 2023 Averted Disaster Award as well as two additional recognitions. The ADA named the Aga Khan Agency for Habitat Pakistan as the 2023 ADA Runner-up in recognition of their Winter Preparedness Program, a community-based initiative focused on avalanche monitoring and risk reduction in the mountainous regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral. Addressing the acute lack of weather forecasting systems in these areas, AKAH has established community-based weather monitoring posts (WMP) to monitor the risk. The Winter Preparedness Programme combines technology-driven data with community-led organization to effectively monitor the potential threats of snow avalanches during the winter season. When predefined thresholds are reached, volunteers spring into action to disseminate critical information, facilitating the safe evacuation of at-risk populations and ultimately saving lives.

Aga Khan Agency for Habitat

Additionally, the ADA presented Special Recognition for Disaster Risk Communication and Diplomacy to two outstanding organizations. BBC Media Action received this accolade for their East Africa Weather Wise program, a media and communication initiative dedicated to climate action, with a specific focus on aiding drought-affected communities in Kenya. In East Africa, BBC Media Action collaborates closely with local broadcasters and climate scientists to build relationships and enhance weather and climate services. Amidst devastating drought conditions that have severely affected pastoralist herds and left 3.5 million people in dire need of food, families and communities in the three most affected counties of Kenya have reported that strengthened radio programming has been instrumental in their ability to survive and adapt. This has included initiatives such as rainwater harvesting, improved livestock management, and other livelihood adaptations.

BBC Media Action

Furthermore, the ADA acknowledged Prepared International (PPI) for their significant contributions to Disaster Risk Diplomacy among Jordan, Israel, and Palestine, with a central goal of enhancing cross-border disaster preparedness and response coordination within the region. In light of recent developments, their endeavors have acquired even greater significance. This expert dialogue on emergency readiness and life-saving strategies involving Jordan, Israel, and Palestine seeks to fortify regional collaboration for a unified response, particularly in the event of a large-scale earthquake.

Prepared International (PPI)

To conclude the event, Shanna McClain has announced the official opening of the application period for the Averted Disaster Award 2024. The Averted Disaster Award welcomes submissions from individuals, project teams, and organizations of all sizes, across various regions and industries, whose effective DRM (Disaster Risk Management) interventions have gone unnoticed due to their success. The nominator does not need to have been directly involved in the intervention. The submission deadline is January 12, 2024.

About the ADA:

The Averted Disaster Award recognizes proactive interventions implemented around the world that help ensure that communities continue to function, thrive, and recover quickly in the face of disaster risk. The Averted Disaster Award is an initiative of the Understanding Risk community and is supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).

For more information concerning the ADA, contact info@averteddisasteraward.org

About the 11th Global Dialogue Platforms on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action:

The 2023 Global Dialogue Platform, held both in Berlin and online from October 10 to 12, played host to various significant events. Among them was the announcement ceremony for the Averted Disaster Award. Furthermore, the platform featured a series of strategic workshops designed to delve into the ways anticipatory action can contribute to and play a pivotal role in advancing global initiatives aimed at safeguarding people from the escalating hazards they face. These initiatives encompass the UN’s Early Warning for All (EW4All) program, as well as the efforts of the G7 and V20 under the Global Shield initiative. Eminent experts, practitioners, and high-ranking government representatives actively participated in these workshops, enriching discussions and collaborating with attendees to shape the resulting recommendations.

Aligned with the Anticipation Hub’s overarching strategy, the Global Dialogue Platforms adopt a people-centered approach to foster collective ownership of the anticipatory action process. These events draw upon a wealth of knowledge derived from diverse sources, spanning the realms of science, policy, and practical experience in the field of anticipatory action.

The Global Dialogue Platform is proudly hosted by the Anticipation Hub, a collaborative venture between the German Red Cross, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. The platform’s organization is a joint effort involving key partners, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), Start Network, and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), with valuable support from the German Federal Foreign Office.

The Averted Disaster Award, an innovative competition that brings visibility to successful disaster-risk-mitigation interventions around the world, will announce its 2023 winners at the 11th Global Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action. The award ceremony on day three of the conference will include a documentary film about the winners.  

Launched in 2022, the Averted Disaster Award uses counterfactual analysis to shed light on ‘what might have been’ had a risk-reduction intervention not been implemented. It seeks to recognize successful initiatives that often go unnoticed precisely because of their success.  

Prof. David Lallemant, Head of the Disaster Analytics for Society Lab at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, and a founding member of the award, said: “While the news often highlights catastrophes, it doesn’t focus on the buildings that stayed standing due to earthquake-resistant building codes, the wildfires avoided due to successful forest management, or the early warning systems that saved lives in a typhoon.”  

The ceremony will be hosted by Dr Shanna McClain, Disasters Program Manager at NASA and a member of the award’s selection committee. Dr McClain said: “Since we launched in 2022, the Averted Disaster Award has served as a platform to raise global awareness of the important work of many thousands of people around the world who are saving lives and protecting property through successful disaster-risk-management interventions.”  

She added: “There are many remarkable initiatives out there that prove unequivocally that we can adapt to and manage the many global challenges we face from natural hazards and climate change. We are excited to share the 2023 winners and showcase their best practices and innovations in disaster risk management.”  

The Averted Disaster Award ceremony will take place at 16:10 on 12 October 2023 at the Global Dialogue Platform, held in Berlin, Germany, and hosted by the Anticipation Hub. Members of the winning intervention will be present at the ceremony and available to the press.  

About the Averted Disaster Award 

The Averted Disaster Award is the premier recognition of successful disaster mitigation interventions that go unnoticed precisely because of their success. In the world of disaster risk management, success means ‘nothing happens’ and, as a result, can cause policy-makers and society at large to undervalue the importance of proactive intervention. The Averted Disaster Award sheds light on successes in disaster risk management and ‘what might have been’ to recognize the outstanding work of those who invest in measures that keep our communities and world safe. 

About the Anticipation Hub  

The Anticipation Hub was launched in December 2020 as a joint initiative of the IFRC, the German Red Cross and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Through its website, working groups and publications, the Anticipation Hub provides a space for people to learn and exchange knowledge about anticipatory action. It also hosts and convenes the annual Global Dialogue Platforms on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action, as well as the Regional Dialogue Platforms that take place in Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Americas. As of September 2023, the Anticipation Hub has 116 partners from more than 40 countries.  

www.anticipation-hub.org  

About the 11th Global Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action  

This year’s Global Dialogue Platform will take place from 10 to 12 October 2023, in Berlin and online. As well as hosting the Averted Disaster Award presentation ceremony, it will stage a series of strategic workshops to explore how anticipatory action can support, and play a major role in achieving, some of the global initiatives to protect people from the rising threat of hazards. These include the UN’s Early Warning for All initiative and the G7 / V20 Global Shield. Experts, practitioners and high-level government representatives will be part of these workshops to inform discussions and, with participants, guide the recommendations that arise.  

Aligned with the Anticipation Hub’s strategy, the Global Dialogue Platforms follow a people-centred approach to create shared ownership of the anticipatory action process. The events are inclusive, promoting and encouraging diversity; they also draw extensively on the different types of knowledge about anticipatory action that are generated through science, policy and practice. In 2022, the Regional and Global Dialogue Platforms brought together more than 2,000 participants from 140 countries.   

https://events.anticipation-hub.org/global-dialogue-platform-2023/about/