Origins of the ADA Prize
Work conducted by Dr. David Lallemant, Maricar Rabonza, Dr. Yolanda Lin and others has highlighted the various contexts that make successful DRM interventions invisible, and the challenge this poses for promoting and incentivizing investment in risk reduction programs. They further propose the use of counterfactual risk analysis as a means to make ‘avoided disasters’ visible, by shedding light on what could have been had a risk reduction intervention not been implemented.
Inspired by Hope
Success made invisible by nature of the success
Successful mitigation may result in fewer losses after a disaster, but this success is obscured amid the catastrophe and losses that were still incurred.
Success made invisible by nature of the success:
A hazard becomes a disaster on account of the impacts it has on society. If mitigation efforts are so successful that there are no perceivable impacts, both the potential disaster and
the successful mitigation are made invisible.
Success made invisible due to yet unrealised benefits
On account of the large time delay between the mitigation intervention and its benefits being realised, mitigation efforts could be seen as unsuccessful or unnecessary until a hazard event occurs.
Success made invisible by the randomness of the specific outcome:
Hazards are stochastic processes, hence any single occurrence is only one of several possibilities that could have occurred. Recognising that the parameters of the event that actually occurred could easily have been different, successes can be
made invisible if the hazard randomly does not strain mitigation measures, e.g. a near-miss.
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