Averted Disaster Award 2024
Honorable Mention
Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation, India.
Disaster Response Force (DRF) in GHMC, Hyderabad is the first of its kind city specific disaster rescue force in India. It tackles all kinds of disasters & emergencies (floods, structural collapse, tree falls, fire,etc) with a sense of emergency and holistic approach of preparedness measures, early warning systems & response through trained rescue forces to minimize negative impacts of disasters and restore normalcy.
The brave & selfless efforts of DRF equipped with precision machinery and rescue tools has been able to build trust among citizens of Hyderabad about their safety by addressing 13000 plus grievances during emergencies & disasters.
DRF stood as a torch bearer system in handling urban disasters/emergencies and sought after by other city administrations in India to replicate. The beauty of the project lies in the fact that no additional expenditure incurred towards manpower resources, all the existing manpower in Urban Local Body(GHMC) is reorganized and deployed into DRF duly imparting professional training on par with NDRF personnel.
Read the counterfactual analysis here.
Averted Disaster Award 2024
Honorable Mention
Taiwan-Reyhanli Centre for World Citizens
Introducing the Taiwan-Reyhanli Centre for World Citizens and its Director, Dr. CHIU Chen-Yu (Cho)!
Cho has been working for 8 years for the Centre built in Reyhanli/Hatay, Turkiye to serve the people of the war-affected region. Located in Reyhanli, a town on the Turkish-Syrian border, the Centre was established by Cho in 2016 to address the needs of the burgeoning Syrian refugee population. The Centre is notable for being the first humanitarian architecture project in the Levant region, receiving praise and awards for its innovative approach to fostering socio-cultural and economic integration between Syrian refugees and Turkish locals.
In the wake of the devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake on February 6, 2023, the earthquake-resistant Centre played a critical role in humanitarian relief, providing shelter, food, electricity and essential services to nearly 2,000 people. It also coordinated with 22 international NGOs to aid the affected communities. As life in Reyhanli began to stabilize, the Centre led efforts to construct transitional shelters and implement long-term recovery plans, focusing on sustainable livelihoods and the inclusion of displaced and disadvantaged groups. Cho’s dedication and leadership have been instrumental in transforming the Centre into a place of hope and resilience for the region.
- Article: The Taiwan-Reyhanlı Centre for World Citizens and 2023 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake
Reyhanli, a town bordering Syria in the southeastern Turkish province of Hatay, experienced a significant population surge as Syrian asylum seekers fled the escalating conflicts in early 2011. The population grew from 120,000 to 270,000, putting immense pressure on local resources. In response, Dr. CHIU Chen-Yu (Cho) initiated the Taiwan-Reyhanli Centre for World Citizens in 2016, marking the first humanitarian architecture project in the Levant region since the Syrian civil war began. This initiative, led by built-environment professionals, has received international acclaim and multiple architectural awards.
Cho, alongside his students from Bilkent University in Ankara, designed and programmed the Centre to foster socio-cultural, economic, and political integration between Syrians and Turkish locals. Starting in 2016, the team conducted site investigations and research, with construction beginning in 2019. As the founding director and principal architect, Cho volunteered his expertise, collaborating closely with the Turkish government, NGOs, INGOs, and grassroots organizations to enhance the quality, equality, and sustainability of life for all residents.
During the design phase, evaluations of pre-construction risks pinpointed Reyhanli’s location within an earthquake-prone area. Consequently, the structure of the Centre was engineered to withstand earthquakes of Magnitude 7.0 and above, while incorporating post-disaster utilities. To minimise on-site expertise requirements, prefabricated building components were selected. Concrete blocks were obtained from the nearby fortified military border, while lightweight metal sheet roofing was chosen for its earthquake-resistant properties, facilitating easier installation within the limited budget.
On February 6, 2023, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck, causing Reyhanli to lose water, electricity, and food supplies for weeks, and leading to the shutdown of local governmental institutions. The Centre immediately transformed into a humanitarian relief hub, hosting nearly 2000 people for 45 days and providing essential services such as shelter, water, food, electricity, and healthcare to thousands of survivors. The Centre also coordinated with 22 INGOs to manage the humanitarian response in the town.
As life gradually returned to normal, with Reyhanli absorbing an additional 200,000 refugees, the Centre has been the first institution to build transitional shelters for displaced Syrian refugees and Turkish locals. Partnering with local organizations, the Centre implemented a 36-month recovery plan to support earthquake survivors, fostering long-term inclusion and integration of minorities and disadvantaged groups.
To mitigate potential disasters, the Centre undertook several actions across three stages:
- Pre-disaster Mitigation:
- Conducting risk assessments and monitoring for earthquakes and terrorist attacks;
- Implementing a construction plan to withstand earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher;
- Developing storage and delivery solutions for emergency supplies, including water, food, medical equipment, fuel, and medicine; and
- Ensuring emergency preparedness by providing essential services such as climate-controlled shelters, power plants, and hygiene facilities.
- Post-disaster Emergency Responses:
- Assessing emergency situations and mobilizing resources efficiently;
- Distributing food and basic nutrition assistance, supporting local health facilities;
- Enhancing the effectiveness of projects by recruiting and managing local staff;
- Providing shelter for over 2000 people, prioritizing women, children, and the elderly;
- Coordinating with international agencies and government officials to manage humanitarian efforts;
- Standardizing information management to prevent disinformation; and
- Using digital media to raise awareness and empower communities.
- Post-disaster Recovery:
- Establishing a monitoring framework to ensure post-stabilization and identify vulnerable populations;
- Creating job opportunities and conducting workshops for displaced and disadvantaged groups;
- Managing volunteer professionals to provide free education to affected children;
- Implementing sustainable fundraising programs and media operations to enhance social awareness; and
- Developing sustainability projects, including recycling systems and renewable energy installations.
The Centre has gained international recognition and numerous architectural awards for its innovative humanitarian relief and disaster prevention approaches. The Centre’s management and architectural innovation approaches have proven effective in aiding displaced and disadvantaged people affected by the Syrian refugee crisis and the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake. These innovations offer new market opportunities and inspire other actors to scale up humanitarian assistance efforts, reducing the negative impacts of potential disasters globally.
Overall, key lessons learned from the Centre’s success include transforming post-emergency relief into sustainable development, cooperative programming with affected communities, using appropriate technologies for disaster resilience, and fostering long-term socio-economic systems. The Centre’s efforts in sustainable financing, ethical international trade, and crowdfunding have ensured continuous support for disaster interventions and long-term recovery, demonstrating a holistic approach to humanitarian innovation.
Dr. Chen-Yu Chiu
Director of the Taiwan-Reyhanli Centre for World Citizens
Read the counterfactual analysis here.
Averted Disaster Award 2024
RUNNER-UP
Anticipating El Nino Drought Impact Collectively
In 2019, the Regional Anticipatory Action Working Group (RAAWG) was founded by its secretariat members Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) to strengthen inter-agency efforts towards regional Anticipatory Action for climate shocks in Southern Africa. Anticipatory Action is designed to reduce the humanitarian impacts of a forecast hazard and is implemented before the most acute impacts of an event are felt. When a pre-defined trigger threshold for drought impact is forecasted, the RAAWG works closely with local government and stakeholders to implement Anticipatory Actions such as early warning messages, cash transfers, the provision of drought-resistant seeds, agricultural training, and improving water sources. RAAWG partners closely with the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) on this front. SADC formally endorsed anticipatory action programming through the adoption of the SADC Maputo Declaration on Bridging the Gap between Early Warning and Early Action in 2022.
The previous El Niño event in 2015–2016 caused the worst drought in 35 years for much of southern Africa. In 2015-2016, humanitarian relief was largely provided post-impact as part of a declaration of emergency once the scale of the disaster became clear. By contrast, RAAWG members activated Anticipatory Action in eSwatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe as early as July 2023 based on seasonal forecasts, months ahead of when peak impacts were forecast. Collectively, RAAWG reached more than two million people and unlocked close to USD31 million in anticipatory finance. Next to RAAWG’s secretariat members WFP, FAO, and IFRC, drought anticipatory actions were supported by UN OCHA, START Network, Save the Children International, Welthungerhilfe and World Vision International. RAAWG-supported activations ahead of the 2023-2024 forecast impacts represent the largest funding of anticipatory assistance in Southern Africa, and the largest number of parallel activations in a region to date.
Read the counterfactual analysis here.
Averted Disaster Award 2024
Honorable Mention
Improving Climate Data and Information Management Project for Jamaica (ICDIMP)
The Improving Climate Data and Information Management Project for Jamaica (ICDIMP) was pivotal in enhancing the quality and application of climate-related data for effective planning and action at both local and national levels. The project’s main focus was to upgrade the hydro-meteorological data collection and processing infrastructure through the acquisition of new equipment, systems, and training for operators, thereby improving forecasts and the availability of reliable data for climate change modeling, risk analysis, and warning systems. Initially, Jamaica’s hydro-met system and the capacity to develop and deliver climate services were significantly challenged due to financial constraints, leading to inadequate maintenance and outdated equipment, such as the obsolete Doppler Weather Radar at Cooper’s Hill.
The technical advancements achieved by the project included a substantial expansion of the meteorological and hydrological observation network, enhancement of data transmission, and the preservation of historical rainfall records. The project enabled open access to weather data and installed 72 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs), which account for over 65% of the national hydro-met network, marking the Caribbean’s first real-time weather reporting system. Additionally, soil moisture probes and tide gauges were installed, contributing to irrigation decision-making, sea level monitoring, and early warning systems for tsunamis and floods. The real-time data system has been instrumental in improving water resource management and disaster response, benefiting 1.2 million people, including training over 150 individuals in data management, with women making up 48% of the beneficiaries. The project’s implementation saw 95% of the equipment installed and operational, with the Meteorological Services of Jamaica’s targets surpassed by 134%.
Read the counterfactual analysis here.
PRESS RELEASE
The Averted Disaster Award Announces the Lamu County Emergency Operation Centre as 2024 Winner
19 June 2024
Himeji, Japan, June 19, 2024 – The Averted Disaster Award (ADA) today named the Lamu County Emergency Operation Centre, Kenya, as the winner of the 2024 ADA award for outstanding Disaster Risk Management (DRM) intervention. This prestigious recognition was announced at the Understanding Risk Global Forum 2024, a four-day conference that brings together Disaster Risk Management experts and practitioners worldwide. Created in December 2021, the Averted Disaster Award is an annual competition that seeks to bring visibility to successful DRM programs and policies around the world. It recognizes proactive interventions that help ensure that communities continue to function, thrive, and recover quickly in the face of disaster risk.

The Lamu County Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) earned this recognition for averting at least five major disasters since its inception in 2016. Particularly between October and December 2023, the region faced a compounded humanitarian crisis due to severe flooding and a cholera outbreak, following the worst drought in four decades. In response to heavy rainfall advisories issued by the Kenyan Meteorological Department, the EOC undertook extensive preparatory measures. These included disseminating tailored information to the community, identifying and stocking 12 evacuation centres, evacuating 4,900 at-risk families (approximately 18,000 people), and relocating 20,000 livestock and property to higher ground. The evacuation was completed 21 days prior to the floods, with evacuees provided with shelter, food, water, healthcare, and other amenities throughout the crisis.

During the floods, damage to the main connecting highway isolated Lamu County from the rest of Kenya, disrupting the delivery of goods and medical aid to evacuation centres. Additionally, an unexpected influx of displaced persons from other counties strained the available resources in Lamu County. This challenge was effectively addressed by mobilising support for additional shelters and supplies from national and international agencies. Remarkably, no human or animal lives were lost during the floods.
The ADA also announced today the Runner-up recipient of the 2024 Averted Disaster Award as well as three additional recognitions. The ADA named the Southern Africa Anticipatory Action Working Group (RAAWG), represented by the United Nations World Food Programme Southern Africa, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFCR) as the 2024 ADA Runner-up in recognition of strengthening inter-agency efforts towards regional anticipatory action for climate shocks in the region. When a pre-defined trigger threshold for drought impact is forecasted, the RAAWG works closely with local government and stakeholders to implement Anticipatory Actions such as early warning messages, cash transfers, the provision of drought-resistant seeds, agricultural training, and improving water sources. Their work was especially important during the 2023 El Niño event as RAAWG members activated Anticipatory Action in eSwatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Collectively, RAAWG reached more than two million people and unlocked close to USD 31 million in anticipatory finance, marking the largest funding of anticipatory assistance in Southern Africa and the highest number of parallel activations in a region to date.
Additionally, the ADA presented an Honourable Mention to the Disaster Response Force (DRF) in Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation for being India’s first city-specific disaster rescue force. It effectively addresses various emergencies, including floods, structural collapses, and fires, through preparedness measures, early warning systems, and trained rescue personnel. The DRF has built trust among Hyderabad’s citizens by addressing over 13,000 emergencies, demonstrating its effectiveness.

Furthermore, the ADA acknowledged the World Bank for their grant-funded Improving Climate Data and Information Management Project (ICDIMP). This project has revolutionized climate data quality in Jamaica, empowering authorities to better predict and respond to flooding dangers. By upgrading hydro-meteorological infrastructure with new equipment and training, ICDIMP has enhanced forecasts and climate modeling. The project has expanded observation networks, improved data transmission, and preserved rainfall records. With the installation of 72 Automatic Weather Stations, it created the Caribbean’s first real-time weather reporting system, benefiting 1.2 million people.

Moreover, the Taiwan Reyhanli Centre for World Citizens has also been recognized with an Honourable Mention. Located in Reyhanli, a town on the Turkish-Syrian border, the centre was created in 2016 to address the needs of the burgeoning Syrian refugee population. The centre is notable for being the first humanitarian architecture project in the Levant region, receiving praise and awards for its innovative approach to fostering socio-cultural and economic integration between Syrian refugees and Turkish locals. In the wake of the devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake on February 6, 2023, the earthquake-resistant centre played a critical role in humanitarian relief, providing shelter, food, electricity and essential services to nearly 2,000 people. It also coordinated with 22 international NGOs to aid the affected communities. As life in Reyhanli began to stabilize, the centre led efforts to construct transitional shelters and implement long-term recovery plans, focusing on sustainable livelihoods and the inclusion of displaced and disadvantaged groups.

The session announcing the winner and awardees was hosted by Averted Disaster Award Advisory Board Member Francis Ghesquiere and Selection Committee members, David Lallemant and Olivia Jensen. Ghesquiere is Practice Manager for the Water Sector in the Eastern and Southern Africa Region of the World Bank. Dr. Olivia Jensen is Lead Scientist at the LRF Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk, National University of Singapore. David Lallemant heads the Disaster Analytics for Society Lab at Nanyang Technological University and Earth Observatory of Singapore and his work serves as the basis for the Averted Disaster Award. At the end of the ceremony, after inviting Shee Kupi, the Lamu County Director of Disaster Risk Management and Peace Building who presented the winning project, onto the stage, they announced that the nomination period for the Averted Disaster Award 2025 will open next November.

About the ADA:
In the world of Disaster Risk Management, success means ‘nothing happens’: this can lead policy makers and society at large to undervalue the importance of proactive intervention. This award aims to shed light on successes in DRM to recognize the outstanding work of those who invest in measures that keep our communities and world safe. It recognizes proactive interventions implemented around the world that help ensure that communities continue to function, thrive, and recover quickly in the face of disaster risk.
The Averted Disaster Award is an initiative of the Understanding Risk community and is supported by the Global Fund for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR). Additional information about the Averted Disaster Award can be found at www.averteddisasteraward.org.
For more information concerning the ADA, contact info@averteddisasteraward.org
The Averted Disaster Award will grant an Independent Counterfactual Analysis to the top 5 projects
12 January 2024
The Averted Disaster Award will grant an independent counterfactual analysis to the top 5 projects
Singapore – The leading 5 interventions nominated for The Averted Disaster Award’s 2024 edition will be honored with an independent counterfactual analysis.
Counterfactual analysis stands out as an indispensable tool in gauging the effectiveness of disaster prevention strategies. This method provides a unique lens through which evaluators can establish causal relationships between interventions and outcomes.
The essence of ‘counterfactual’ lies in its ability to unveil what would have happened to beneficiaries in the absence of a particular intervention. This process involves estimating impact by comparing outcomes derived from the counterfactual scenario with those observed under the actual intervention.
Increasingly, counterfactual analysis is gaining prominence in the field of disaster risk management. This method empowers practitioners to navigate the spectrum of potential outcomes influenced by highly uncertain and random variables in a growing number of applications including earthquakes, climate change, and volcanic eruptions.
“We use counterfactuals to imagine and quantify the disasters that could have been” says Dr. David Lallemant, Assistant Professor at the Earth Observatory of Singapore at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “Counterfactual Analysis looks beyond immediate visible outcomes and considers the “what if” scenarios” in order to explore more broadly the true impact of a disaster risk intervention. For example: What if the school earthquake retrofit program had not been implemented? How many schools would have collapsed? How many more people would have been affected? In so doing we can highlight the fact that the seemingly ordinary functioning of buildings and infrastructure in the face of floods, earthquakes and typhoons, is in fact extraordinary and worth celebrating.”

The counterfactual analysis will be conducted at Nanyang Technological University, by PhD and Associate Professor, Susanna Jenkins. Prof. Jenkins has over 20 years of applied experience as a Risk Analyst in the field of Disaster Risk Management and Natural Hazards.
Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore is renowned for its commitment to cutting-edge research and innovation. Among its notable research entities is the Disaster Analytics for Society Lab (DASL). DASL focuses on harnessing advanced analytics and technology to address global challenges related to natural and man-made disasters. The lab emphasizes interdisciplinary collaboration, bringing together experts from fields such as data science, engineering, and social sciences to develop innovative solutions for disaster management. Through its research initiatives, DASL aims to enhance society’s resilience and response capabilities in the face of emergencies. NTU’s dedication to fostering impactful research, coupled with DASL’s mission to leverage data analytics for societal benefit, reflects the university’s commitment to addressing critical issues on a global scale.
The findings of Prof. Jenkins’ analysis will be captured in a report that will include:
- Overview of the intervention background, development, features and future.
- Counterfactual analysis or narrative highlighting the benefits and “what if” scenarios related to the intervention. *The risk analyst will discuss the counterfactual with each applicant and engage with them on the approach and outcome while remaining independent.
- Provide at least two figures/schematics to visually support the analysis
What are the benefits of receiving a free independent counterfactual analysis for your intervention or organization?
Having an independent counterfactual analysis provides multiple benefits:
- Trusted Outcomes: Having the analysis conducted by a highly credentialed risk analyst at a trusted university known for its thought leadership in the field of disaster risk management ensures that the assumptions used are evidence based and rooted in reality.
- Enhanced Understanding of Intervention Impact: Independent counterfactual analysis will allow the organization to validate and potentially enhance the understanding of measurable impact for the nominated project. Impact data and proposed counterfactual metrics provided in the application will be validated as part of the counterfactual analysis and additional impact metrics or narratives may be added to provide a clear message on the benefits of the intervention.
- Informed Decision-Making: The insights gained from the counterfactual analysis can influence future decision-making processes within the organization, helping to amplify effective strategies.
- Clear Snapshot of Performance: A counterfactual analysis allows stakeholders to assess the project’s performance against alternative scenarios and expectations. It is a clear snapshot that can be shared with leadership, donors or other decision makers as a way to make convincing arguments about the benefits of your intervention that may not be easily seen.
This can be a highly effective tool for influencing decision makers and the community at large to understand the full impact and benefit of disaster risk interventions.
New Judging Process
The addition of an independent counterfactual analysis will now be incorporated into the Averted Disaster Award judging process in the following way:
February 2nd, 2024: Applications Due
February: Judges will review and score all applications to determine the Top 5
March: Top 5 applicants notified
March-April: Counterfactual analysis conducted by independent risk analyst. Risk analyst will use the information from the original application as well as direct communication with the applicant for any additional information needed.
*Applicants must be available and provide requested information during this time frame in order to be eligible to receive the final counterfactual narrative.
May: Judges review the independent counterfactual narrative for the Top 5 applicants and factor this analysis together with the originally submitted application to determine the final winner.
June: Winner notified
The Averted Disaster Award Opens Its Third Call for Recognizing Global Disaster Mitigation Successes
18 October 2023
Singapore – The Averted Disaster Award, dedicated to acknowledging successful disaster mitigation efforts worldwide, has officially launched its third call for nominations.
Every year, natural disasters wreak havoc, claiming lives, devastating communities, and imposing substantial economic costs on the global economy. Yet, behind the scenes, disaster risk professionals and organizations work tirelessly to mitigate these catastrophic events. While media coverage often focuses on disasters, it rarely sheds light on successes; the structures saved due to earthquake-resistant building codes, the wildfires averted through effective forest management, or the lives spared thanks to timely evacuations. Disaster risk management (DRM) often faces the paradox that its failures are highly visible, while its successes go unnoticed.
The Averted Disaster Award’s purpose is to spotlight achievements in DRM that often go unnoticed as a result of their success. Applications are welcome from individuals, project teams, and organizations of all sizes, across various regions and industries. The nominator does not need to have been directly involved in the intervention. Submission deadline is January 12, 2024.
Interventions take many forms. The most obvious interventions are structural in nature, such as sea-walls or reinforced bridges. Certain activities, such as controlled forest burns, count as interventions too, since they reduce future wildfire risk. Financial products that manage disaster risk, such as flood insurance schemes, count as interventions as well. Interventions can also occur at the individual or community scale, where, for example, placing sandbags to protect critical locations such as grocery stores or hospitals can ensure that the community as a whole can recover more quickly from flash floods. It is important to keep in mind that interventions are proactive and not reactive: interventions are generally pre-meditated and implemented before the disaster occurs.
The winning submission receives travel, accommodations and a complimentary ticket for one person to attend Understanding Risk 2024, in Tokyo Japan where the intervention will be announced as the winner and celebrated during a session. Understanding Risk is the world’s largest forum for perspectives and innovations in global DRM. Additionally, a documentary short film will be developed to showcase the intervention and featured prominently in ADA media and communications content.
The Averted Disaster Award Selection Committee is composed of thought leaders and practitioners in the field of DRM. Selection Committee members apply their expertise without bias to review applications and collaborate to determine the shortlist of finalists and winner of the ADA prize. Selection Committee members include: Shanna N. Mcclain. PHD (NASA, Disasters Program Manager), David Lallemant. PHD (Head of Disaster Analytics for Society Lab at Nanyang Technological University and the Earth Observatory of Singapore), Stéphane Hallegatte (Senior Climate Change Adviser at World Bank), and Dr. Olivia Jensen (Lead Scientist, LRF Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk, National University of Singapore).
Judges assess each application against the following criteria: 1) level of impact of the disaster averted, 2) quality of evidence based results, 3) potential to replicate adapt and scale, 4) levels of inclusivity, equity and focus on the most vulnerable, 5) narrative clarity and contribution to understanding risk and risk mitigation. The panel considers all case summaries submitted by the deadline, and choose the one that makes the best case for an effective disaster mitigation intervention.
To date, two organizations have received the Averted Disaster Award. In 2022, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society was honored for its work implementing a forecast-based financing framework for vulnerable communities in Bangladesh during successive climatic events from May-July 2020. Recently, in October, The Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications earned recognition for its work integrating landslide early warning technology and engaging communities for emergency preparedness and resilience in the Himalayas & Western Ghats regions of India.
The ADA has also recognized the efforts of other organizations worldwide, including Aga Khan Agency for Habitat (Pakistan), Build Change (Philippines), University of the Philippines Resilience Institute for their Project NOAH, GeoHazards International for their project Landslide Safety Action Plan (India), BBC Media (Kenya), and Prepared International (Jordan, Israel, and Palestine). In the two years of ADA’s existence, nominations have been received for projects from all regions of the world. To discover some of these successful interventions, click here.
About the Averted Disaster Award
The Averted Disaster Award recognizes proactive interventions implemented around the world that help ensure that communities continue to function, thrive, and recover quickly in the face of disaster risk. The Averted Disaster Award is an initiative of the Understanding Risk community and is supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).
For more information concerning the ADA, or if you or your company is interested in supporting the Averted Disaster Award, please contact info@averteddisasteraward.org
Averted Disaster Award 2023
Winner
Amrita Center for Wireless Networks & Applications
Revolutionizing Disaster Management: Empowering Communities and Saving Lives through Technological Interventions
In recent years, India has been grappling with an escalating frequency of natural disasters, and among these, landslides have emerged as a particularly impactful threat. The Himalayan and Western Ghats regions in the country are especially vulnerable to landslides, leading to numerous casualties each year. To address this pressing challenge, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, India, has pioneered a ground-breaking solution – AI-enabled Internet of Things (IoT) Landslide Early Warning System (Amrita-LEWS).
Landslides triggered by factors such as extreme rainfall, improper drainage, and human development activities have wreaked havoc on regions like Munnar in the southern state of Kerala. For years 2018 through 2022, the Munnar community has faced perilous situations during the monsoon season, jeopardizing their lives, livelihoods, and security. To combat this, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham introduced the Amrita-LEWS, an innovative system consisting of more than 150 sensors strategically placed underground, ranging from the surface level to bedrock.
This system is a sophisticated amalgamation of AI, IoT, and data analytics. It continuously monitors an array of parameters – from rainfall, seismic actions, and moisture levels to pore pressure, vibrations, and inclinations. The collected data is then analyzed to predict the onset of landslides with impressive accuracy.
Notably, the system incorporates AI and machine learning techniques to forecast landslides with a lead time of 3 to 24 hours, thus providing a crucial window for evacuation and disaster preparedness.
What sets the Amrita-LEWS apart is its ability to monitor various types of parameters and offer multi-scale warnings for different types of landslides. By seamlessly integrating meteorological, geological, and hydrological data through an IoT framework, the system delivers timely and reliable early warnings. The technology has been rigorously tested, validated, and refined through real-world deployments, ensuring its effectiveness.
A more advanced iteration of this system has been operational in Chandmari, Sikkim, since 2018. Covering over 32 hectares, this extended version employs an array of geotechnical and geophysical sensors to monitor factors like moisture levels, pore water pressure, ground vibrations, tilting, and strain. Weather stations equipped with environmental sensors keep track of rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The real-time data from these sensors is transmitted to Amrita’s Control Center, where it undergoes detailed analysis to generate accurate predictions and facilitate informed decision-making.
This technological marvel hasn’t just remained confined to laboratories – it has proven its mettle in the field. Amrita’s IoT system has successfully issued early warnings for landslides on numerous occasions, including critical instances like July 2009, August 2011, August 2013, and more recently, in July and August of 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. These timely alerts have played a pivotal role in safeguarding the lives and properties of the Munnar community.
Two striking examples highlight the system’s effectiveness: In August 2020 and August 2022, regional landslide warnings were issued for the Western Ghats, specifically Munnar. In both instances, devastating landslides occurred within a mere 20 kilometers of the deployment sites shortly after the warnings. These incidents stand as testament to the reliability and accuracy of Amrita’s early warning system.
Yet, Amrita’s commitment to disaster management goes beyond technology. The institution is deeply engaged in fostering community resilience through comprehensive programs. Initiatives like the Landslide Tracker, a collaborative mobile app, and the Amrita Kripa app for real-time disaster management underscore their dedication to involving the community. Additionally, Social Media Mining Platform focuses on harnessing social media data for swift and inclusive multi-hazard event detection, aiding rescue and relief operations.
By intertwining technological prowess with community empowerment, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham is revolutionizing disaster preparedness and mitigation. Through a decade-long journey of research, development, deployment, and operation, their AI- and IoT-driven systems have proven instrumental in not just saving lives, but also making communities self-reliant and resilient in the face of natural disasters. The experiences gleaned from real-world deployments in both the Western Ghats and the North-east Himalayas stand as a testament to the transformative power of technology when combined with a vision for societal betterment.
Averted Disaster Award 2023
Runner Up
Aga Khan Agency for Habitat, Pakistan
Fighting Avalanche Risk in the High Mountains of Pakistan
Background
The northern regions of Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral (GBC), home to some of the world’s largest mountain ranges including the Hindu Kush, the Himalayas and the Karakorum. These regions are characterised by rough and rugged terrain. Over 2 million people living in narrow gorges, foothills and steep terrains, face multiple natural hazards. Winters are long, harsh and isolating with heavy snowfall. According to news reports, only this year, some villages/valleys remained cut off from the rest of the country for more than 15 days (Nagri, 2023). The northern mountainous regions of Pakistan experience heavy snowfall and regularly witness snow avalanches during the winter and spring seasons (Gurung et al., 2023). As such these natural hazards pose a constant threat to human life, property, and critical infrastructure in these high-altitude mountain communities of GBC.
The Aga Khan Agency for Habitat, Pakistan, an agency of the Aga Khan Development Network, works with these communities to reduce disaster risk and adapt to climate change. Since 1992 AKAH has recorded more than 350 avalanche events in parts of GBC, resulting in the tragic loss of over 310 lives and causing numerous injuries. These avalanches have also left a trail of destruction, demolishing hundreds of houses, link roads, and critical infrastructure.
Averting Avalanche Risks
To identify, understand and address this natural hazard, AKAHP’s technical experts conducted extensive Hazard Vulnerability & Risk Assessments (HVRA) of villages and towns across GBC. The assessment data reveals that over 250 villages across only four out of 12 districts of GBC are exposed to immediate avalanche risks. Alarmingly, more than 1,100 households are at direct risk from these avalanches. While it may not be possible to stop avalanche events, AKAHP has pioneered a community-driven approach to help minimize these risks.
AKAHP Winter Preparedness and Avalanche Readiness Programme (WPRAP)
WPARP is a key aspect of AKAH’s Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and mitigation framework. AKAH Pakistan started its snow avalanche-related interventions in 2012, initially focusing on 10 villages that were extremely vulnerable to snow avalanches. With the increasing frequency of snow avalanche disasters in the region, this project has been expanded to over 250 villages across GBC.
This seasonal preparedness programme is designed to monitor risks, generate early warnings and create awareness and develop community capacities (Nasab, 2021). As such, community-level response plans are developed to cater to avalanche incidents. Since the sustainability of this programme hinges on local actors, AKAHP has created and capacitated teams of trained village-level volunteers i.e., Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) to educate the local communities and to improve preparedness.
In addition to localized face-to-face training and awareness sessions, AKAH Pakistan has developed educational material like pamphlets, brochures, road signs and interactive videos (such as the one on the left) to educate communities about the key steps that one can take to protect themselves and their community from the threat of avalanches.
Localised Weather Forecasting
Remote mountain communities in Gilgit Baltistan and Chitral (GBC) lack accurate and timely weather forecasting and early warning systems. To fill this gap AKAH has established community-based Weather Monitoring Posts (WMPs), in 53 critical locations in remote valleys where avalanches pose a severe threat to human settlements. WMP volunteers trained by AKAH collect and report daily weather data on temperature, snowfall, wind, rain and more, as well as any data on avalanches that occurred.
AKAHP experts analyse this data and provide avalanche forecasts and alerts which are disseminated to communities by AKAHP’s through the local structures created as part of the disaster risk reduction framework.
AKAH’s winter preparedness programme promotes a community-based approach to disaster risk management. Training local volunteers to monitor daily weather and in em ergency response in at-risk villages has improved awareness, preparedness and trust of the community and reduced the challenges related to timely communication and evacuation. As the case of Ucho Gole in Chitral district shows, these efforts have helped save lives and build self-reliance.
The Story of UCHO GOLE
On 4th January 2016 in Ucho Gole, a village in Lower Chitral, the local weather monitoring and community emergency response volunteers received an avalanche alert from AKAH. One volunteer in the village rushed to disseminate the alert to 12 families who were living in the avalanche risk zone. Out of these 12, two (02) houses were in the extreme risk zone. When the volunteer reached one of the houses, the family was entertaining some guests who had come to visit them, having no idea about the looming danger. In the mountainous region, hospitality is elaborate and when the volunteer arrived, the family also offered him a hot cup of tea. Knowing the level of the imminent threat, sacrificing politeness, he refused the offer and convinced the family members and their guests to leave at once and evacuate to a safer location. Though they resisted initially, he was able to convince them to evacuate to safe place nearby just in time before an avalanche came down and destroyed their homes completely. Luckily, all of the family members, their guests and the volunteer (17 people) were saved and there was no regret in refusing tea.
Conclusion
AKAH’s winter preparedness programme has helped in saving lives through improving community preparedness It has also strengthened coordination among disaster management authorities including provincial disaster management, and voluntary bodies. Whenever an avalanche occurs, AKAH’s Search and Rescue Team (SART) volunteers, mobilise with local authorities and Rescue 1122 as first responders.
By community involvement and prioritizing the safety and well-being of those living in these vulnerable areas, we can make significant contributions towards reducing the risk and impact of avalanches in Pakistan’s mountainous regions.
Protecting mountainous communities from deadly avalanches requires a proactive approach that emphasizes timely, effective emergency response and long-term resilience-building initiatives, empowering communities with the knowledge and capacities to prepare, protect and recover from disaster.
Contributor:
Mehar Aftab, Communication Coordinator, Aga Khan Agency for Habitat Pakistan
Syed Gohar Ali Shah, Manager, Partnerships, Aga Khan Agency for Habitat Pakistan
Sher Wali, Manager, Risk Anticipation, Aga Khan Agency for Habitat Pakistan
Avalache terracing at the trigger point at Khishwakht Washich, Upper Chitral
Wooden tripods installed at the avalachne triggering point in Kishwakhat, Washich, Upper Chitral
References
Gurung, D. R., Saratbekova, R., Sahim, S. A., Walizada, K. M., Wali, S., Karim, D., Dobariya, R., & Nasab, N. (2023). Community Resilience Through Local Action: AKAH’s Winter Preparedness and Avalanche Readiness Programme. In Springer eBooks (pp. 345–363). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-24541-1_16
Nagri, J. (2023, February 24). Snowfall, avalanches cut off GB, Chitral villages. DAWN.COM. https://www.dawn.com/news/1738837
Nasab, N. (2021, May 25). The Winter Preparedness and Avalanche Readiness Programme, a comprehensive avalanche preparedness plan in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan. Adaptation at Altitude. Retrieved June 24, 2023, from https://adaptationataltitude.org/solutions-portal/the-winter-preparedness-and-avalanche-readiness-programme-a-comprehensive-avalanche-preparedness-plan-in-afghanistan-pakistan-and-tajikistan#:~:text=The%20Winter%20Preparedness%20and%20Avalanche%20Readiness%20Programme%20is%20a%20comprehensive,in%20Afghanistan%2C%20Pakistan%20and%20Tajikistan.
Averted Disaster Award 2023
Special Recognition
BBC MEDIA ACTION
Averting disaster with the power of media: BBC MEDIA ACTION
As drought threatens traditional pastoral communities in Kenya and Somalia, BBC Media Action is supporting media programming that can help families adapt.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organisation forecast yet another below-normal rainfall for Kenya and Somalia – the sixth consecutive season of poor rains in the last three years.
The resulting drought has left an estimated 3.5 million people severely food insecure, and devastated the herds of traditional pastoral groups. An estimated 1.5 million animals have perished from depleted pastures and diminished water sources. In Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana counties in Kenya, over 90% of open water sources had gone dry, as of spring 2022.
But information can help people make critical decisions and cope. And in these three worst-affected counties, families and communities have reported that they have been able to start kitchen gardens, harvest rainwater, improve how they manage their herds, and take other measures to help adapt their lives and livelihoods – because of stories shared and information they have learned through radio.
Joining up to provide essential weather and climate information
BBC Media Action has brought together media professionals and scientists to improve communication around essential weather and climate information, ensuring that it reflects people’s voices and needs. Our projects, Weather Wise – part of WISER, funded by the UK Met Office with back-funding from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; and Down2Earth, a consortium funded by the European Union – have built on tested methods of mentoring journalists and broadcasters using the editorial standards and principles of the BBC, while forging stronger connections with local climate scientists and Met officers.
Our first project, Weather Wise, addressed the existing disconnect between climate scientists, broadcasters, and their audiences. Climate scientists often produce technical research findings and projections, but farmers and pastoralists need information in simple, accessible local languages that they can apply to everyday challenges. A temperature provided in degrees Celsius means little to someone used to predicting weather using traditional methods and unaccustomed to reading a thermometer. And, despite efforts to improve weather and climate services in East Africa, our formative research found that their engagement with ordinary people is still relatively low due to the lack of reach, relevance, and accessibility.
Weather Wise approaches
Our Weather Wise project aimed to close this gap by improving access to, and knowledge of, climate and weather information amongst farmers, fishermen and pastoralists in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, through:
- Training and mentoring: Working with 10 local radio stations, we built the skills of media professionals from these three countries on effective communication of weather and climate information – ensuring they keep practical decision-making in mind. Working to editorial standards and values of the BBC we conducted in-house and remote training on topics such as appropriate formats, story packaging, and how to increase audience engagement.
- Relationship building: We supported local journalists to build networks with climate scientists, Met officers, agricultural extension workers and others essential to telling stories about climate change. Over time we persuaded these officials that investing their time speaking to and co-producing content with local journalists was an effective strategy to reach their target audiences.
- Encouraging partnership: We held workshops to bring together journalists and climate scientists – many of whom had not previously worked together – to forge new partnerships and networks, encouraging the co-production of high-quality climate media content.
- Audience feedback: We used our research with audiences to understand what radio content they found most useful and worked with the journalist to improve the content based on audience feedback. Our research showed station managers that their audience needed and appreciated this type of content and that they were using it to make decisions to improve their lives.
In our Down2Earth follow-up project, we worked with five broadcasters focused on Marsabit, Turkana and Samburu counties. For this project, we first built an understanding of media consumption, knowledge and attitudes in rural communities through research. We followed that with capacity-strengthening with local radio station partners through training, mentoring, equipment donation and building links with local climate scientists. Broadcasters then produced media content focusing on water scarcity, food insecurity and climate adaptation.
What our research found
Following both projects, our researchers found that listeners to these radio programmes understood climate change and its impacts, and were able to list actions they learned which could help them improve their livelihoods. For example, pastoralists spoke about evacuating livestock and families at times of heavy rainfall and flooding.
While some doubted the accuracy of weather forecasts, all listeners surveyed said they understood the importance of listening, and how the forecast can help them prepare. And even when limited finances prevented greater actions, listeners said they were able to apply their learning to some extent to help prevent losses.
As the drought continues, many in these communities are now benefitting from an improved ability to cope with extreme weather, from the information and inspiration they have received through radio.
Stories from our communities
“Being a pastoralist, there are a lot of challenges… such as lack of water and pasture ..People need to be trained and to gain skills so (they can) cope with the situation. I would encourage the youth to use social media and radio stations to gain information, especially on climate change …I have really learned some skills…I started a kitchen garden, and water harvesting.” — Wambaz, 25, an artist, radio presenter and farmer in Marsabit, Kenya
“The topics they discuss are relevant because they share information I need. I have learned a lot from the stories they share. I know that if I do certain things I will benefit, and I also know that if I continue to listen to it then it will benefit me, my household and my life in general.” —Female, Taru, audience member of Serian FM
“I heard them saying on radio that seasons have changed and that we should not just plant maize as we mostly do but plant other crops like sweet potatoes and kunde (cowpeas) that don’t require a lot of rain and that mature within a short time. I also heard them say that we should move our livestock to safer grounds to prevent them from being washed away by flash floods. Before I never used to have this knowledge and used to be caught unaware with rains when livestock were grazing away from home.”— Male listener of Jangwani FM, Logologo, Kenya
Essential components
This intervention, carried out over several years amid severe drought, can be easily replicated and scaled up to cover vast areas. We know from experience that people in even the most remote and rural locations can be reached where they are, through radio. Even in areas with little to no access to media, the provision of solar-powered or wind-up radios, loaded with content and shared with listening groups, ensures communities are reached with information that can be shared with others in participants’ families, communities and social networks.
Media and communication are essential in any climate action to reduce and mitigate risk. They work at speed, scale and low cost to reach audiences with timely, relevant and trusted information in languages they understand, to help them make critical decisions for themselves and their families. The information imparted in these projects will help families better cope with ongoing drought and extreme weather patterns – including through longer-term adjustments to their livelihoods for better economic security.