The Averted Disaster Award will grant an Independent Counterfactual Analysis to the top 5 projects

12 January 2024

The Averted Disaster Award will grant an independent counterfactual analysis to the top 5 projects

Singapore – The leading 5 interventions nominated for The Averted Disaster Award’s 2024 edition will be honored with an independent counterfactual analysis.

Counterfactual analysis stands out as an indispensable tool in gauging the effectiveness of  disaster prevention strategies. This method provides a unique lens through which evaluators can establish causal relationships between interventions and outcomes.

The essence of ‘counterfactual’ lies in its ability to unveil what would have happened to beneficiaries in the absence of a particular intervention. This process involves estimating impact by comparing outcomes derived from the counterfactual scenario with those observed under the actual intervention.

Increasingly, counterfactual analysis is gaining prominence in the field of disaster risk management. This method empowers practitioners to navigate the spectrum of potential outcomes influenced by highly uncertain and random variables in a growing number of applications including earthquakes, climate change, and volcanic eruptions.

“We use counterfactuals to imagine and quantify the disasters that could have been” says Dr. David Lallemant, Assistant Professor at the Earth Observatory of Singapore at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “Counterfactual Analysis looks beyond immediate visible outcomes and considers the “what if” scenarios” in order to explore more broadly the true impact of a disaster risk intervention. For example: What if the school earthquake retrofit program had not been implemented? How many schools would have collapsed? How many more people would have been affected? In so doing we can highlight the fact that the seemingly ordinary functioning of buildings and infrastructure in the face of floods, earthquakes and typhoons, is in fact extraordinary and worth celebrating.”

The counterfactual analysis will be conducted at Nanyang Technological University, by PhD and Associate Professor, Susanna Jenkins. Prof. Jenkins has over 20 years of applied experience as a Risk Analyst in the field of Disaster Risk Management and Natural Hazards. 

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore is renowned for its commitment to cutting-edge research and innovation. Among its notable research entities is the Disaster Analytics for Society Lab (DASL). DASL focuses on harnessing advanced analytics and technology to address global challenges related to natural and man-made disasters. The lab emphasizes interdisciplinary collaboration, bringing together experts from fields such as data science, engineering, and social sciences to develop innovative solutions for disaster management. Through its research initiatives, DASL aims to enhance society’s resilience and response capabilities in the face of emergencies. NTU’s dedication to fostering impactful research, coupled with DASL’s mission to leverage data analytics for societal benefit, reflects the university’s commitment to addressing critical issues on a global scale.

The findings of Prof. Jenkins’ analysis will be captured in a report that will include:

  • Overview of the intervention background, development, features and future.
  • Counterfactual analysis or narrative highlighting the benefits and “what if” scenarios related to the intervention. *The risk analyst will discuss the counterfactual with each applicant and engage with them on the approach and outcome while remaining independent.
  • Provide at least two figures/schematics to visually support the analysis

What are the benefits of receiving a free independent counterfactual analysis for your intervention or organization?

Having an independent counterfactual analysis provides multiple benefits:

  • Trusted Outcomes:  Having the analysis conducted by a highly credentialed risk analyst at a trusted university known for its thought leadership in the field of disaster risk management ensures that the assumptions used are evidence based and rooted in reality.  
  • Enhanced Understanding of Intervention Impact: Independent counterfactual analysis will allow the organization to validate and potentially enhance the understanding of measurable impact for the nominated project. Impact data and proposed counterfactual metrics provided in the application will be validated as part of the counterfactual analysis and additional impact metrics or narratives may be added to provide a clear message on the benefits of the intervention.
  • Informed Decision-Making: The insights gained from the counterfactual analysis can influence future decision-making processes within the organization, helping to amplify effective strategies.
  • Clear Snapshot of Performance:  A counterfactual analysis allows stakeholders to assess the project’s performance against alternative scenarios and expectations. It is a clear snapshot that can be shared with leadership, donors or other decision makers as a way to make convincing arguments about the benefits of your intervention that may not be easily seen.

This can be a highly effective tool for influencing decision makers and the community at large to understand the full impact and benefit of disaster risk interventions. 

New Judging Process

The addition of an independent counterfactual analysis will now be incorporated into the Averted Disaster Award judging process in the following way:

February 2nd, 2024: Applications Due

February: Judges will review and score all applications to determine the Top 5

March: Top 5 applicants notified

March-April: Counterfactual analysis conducted by independent risk analyst. Risk analyst will use the information from the original application as well as direct communication with the applicant for any additional information needed.

*Applicants must be available and provide requested information during this time frame in order to be eligible to receive the final counterfactual narrative.

May: Judges review the independent counterfactual narrative for the Top 5 applicants and factor this analysis together with the originally submitted application to determine the final winner.

June: Winner notified

The Averted Disaster Award Opens Its Third Call for Recognizing Global Disaster Mitigation Successes

18 October 2023

Singapore – The Averted Disaster Award, dedicated to acknowledging successful disaster mitigation efforts worldwide, has officially launched its third call for nominations.  

Every year, natural disasters wreak havoc, claiming lives, devastating communities, and imposing substantial economic costs on the global economy. Yet, behind the scenes, disaster risk professionals and organizations work tirelessly to mitigate these catastrophic events. While media coverage often focuses on disasters, it rarely sheds light on successes; the structures saved due to earthquake-resistant building codes, the wildfires averted through effective forest management, or the lives spared thanks to timely evacuations. Disaster risk management (DRM) often faces the paradox that its failures are highly visible, while its successes go unnoticed.  

The Averted Disaster Award’s purpose is to spotlight achievements in DRM that often go unnoticed as a result of their success.  Applications are welcome from individuals, project teams, and organizations of all sizes, across various regions and industries.  The nominator does not need to have been directly involved in the intervention. Submission deadline is January 12, 2024. 

Interventions take many forms. The most obvious interventions are structural in nature, such as sea-walls or reinforced bridges. Certain activities, such as controlled forest burns, count as interventions too, since they reduce future wildfire risk. Financial products that manage disaster risk, such as flood insurance schemes, count as interventions as well. Interventions can also occur at the individual or community scale, where, for example, placing sandbags to protect critical locations such as grocery stores or hospitals can ensure that the community as a whole can recover more quickly from flash floods. It is important to keep in mind that interventions are proactive and not reactive: interventions are generally pre-meditated and implemented before the disaster occurs. 

The winning submission receives travel, accommodations and a complimentary ticket for one person to attend Understanding Risk 2024, in Tokyo Japan where the intervention will be announced as the winner and celebrated during a session.  Understanding Risk is the world’s largest forum for perspectives and innovations in global DRM.  Additionally, a documentary short film will be developed to showcase the intervention and featured prominently in ADA media and communications content. 

The Averted Disaster Award Selection Committee is composed of thought leaders and practitioners in the field of DRM.   Selection Committee members apply their expertise without bias to review applications and collaborate to determine the shortlist of finalists and winner of the ADA prize. Selection Committee members include: Shanna N. Mcclain. PHD (NASA, Disasters Program Manager), David Lallemant. PHD (Head of Disaster Analytics for Society Lab at Nanyang Technological University and the Earth Observatory of Singapore), Stéphane Hallegatte (Senior Climate Change Adviser at World Bank), and Dr. Olivia Jensen (Lead Scientist, LRF Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk, National University of Singapore). 

Judges assess each application against the following criteria: 1) level of impact of the disaster averted, 2) quality of evidence based results, 3) potential to replicate adapt and scale, 4) levels of inclusivity, equity and focus on the most vulnerable, 5) narrative clarity and contribution to understanding risk and risk mitigation.  The panel considers all case summaries submitted by the deadline, and choose the one that makes the best case for an effective disaster mitigation intervention.  

To date, two organizations have received the Averted Disaster Award. In 2022, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society was honored for its work implementing a forecast-based financing framework for vulnerable communities in Bangladesh during successive climatic events from May-July 2020. Recently, in October, The Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications earned recognition for its work integrating landslide early warning technology and engaging communities for emergency preparedness and resilience in the Himalayas & Western Ghats regions of India. 

The ADA has also recognized the efforts of other organizations worldwide, including Aga Khan Agency for Habitat (Pakistan), Build Change (Philippines), University of the Philippines Resilience Institute for their Project NOAH, GeoHazards International for their project Landslide Safety Action Plan (India), BBC Media (Kenya), and Prepared International (Jordan, Israel, and Palestine). In the two years of ADA’s existence, nominations have been received for projects from all regions of the world. To discover some of these successful interventions, click here. 

About the Averted Disaster Award 

The Averted Disaster Award recognizes proactive interventions implemented around the world that help ensure that communities continue to function, thrive, and recover quickly in the face of disaster risk. The Averted Disaster Award is an initiative of the Understanding Risk community and is supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). 

For more information concerning the ADA, or if you or your company is interested in supporting the Averted Disaster Award, please contact info@averteddisasteraward.org 

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Averted Disaster Award 2023

Winner

Amrita Center for Wireless Networks & Applications

Revolutionizing Disaster Management: Empowering Communities and Saving Lives through Technological Interventions

In recent years, India has been grappling with an escalating frequency of natural disasters, and among these, landslides have emerged as a particularly impactful threat. The Himalayan and Western Ghats regions in the country are especially vulnerable to landslides, leading to numerous casualties each year. To address this pressing challenge, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, India, has pioneered a ground-breaking solution – AI-enabled Internet of Things (IoT) Landslide Early Warning System (Amrita-LEWS).

Landslides triggered by factors such as extreme rainfall, improper drainage, and human development activities have wreaked havoc on regions like Munnar in the southern state of Kerala. For years 2018 through 2022, the Munnar community has faced perilous situations during the monsoon season, jeopardizing their lives, livelihoods, and security. To combat this, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham introduced the Amrita-LEWS, an innovative system consisting of more than 150 sensors strategically placed underground, ranging from the surface level to bedrock.

This system is a sophisticated amalgamation of AI, IoT, and data analytics. It continuously monitors an array of parameters – from rainfall, seismic actions, and moisture levels to pore pressure, vibrations, and inclinations. The collected data is then analyzed to predict the onset of landslides with impressive accuracy.

Notably, the system incorporates AI and machine learning techniques to forecast landslides with a lead time of 3 to 24 hours, thus providing a crucial window for evacuation and disaster preparedness.

What sets the Amrita-LEWS apart is its ability to monitor various types of parameters and offer multi-scale warnings for different types of landslides. By seamlessly integrating meteorological, geological, and hydrological data through an IoT framework, the system delivers timely and reliable early warnings. The technology has been rigorously tested, validated, and refined through real-world deployments, ensuring its effectiveness.

A more advanced iteration of this system has been operational in Chandmari, Sikkim, since 2018. Covering over 32 hectares, this extended version employs an array of geotechnical and geophysical sensors to monitor factors like moisture levels, pore water pressure, ground vibrations, tilting, and strain. Weather stations equipped with environmental sensors keep track of rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The real-time data from these sensors is transmitted to Amrita’s Control Center, where it undergoes detailed analysis to generate accurate predictions and facilitate informed decision-making.

This technological marvel hasn’t just remained confined to laboratories – it has proven its mettle in the field. Amrita’s IoT system has successfully issued early warnings for landslides on numerous occasions, including critical instances like July 2009, August 2011, August 2013, and more recently, in July and August of 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. These timely alerts have played a pivotal role in safeguarding the lives and properties of the Munnar community.

Two striking examples highlight the system’s effectiveness: In August 2020 and August 2022, regional landslide warnings were issued for the Western Ghats, specifically Munnar. In both instances, devastating landslides occurred within a mere 20 kilometers of the deployment sites shortly after the warnings. These incidents stand as testament to the reliability and accuracy of Amrita’s early warning system.

Yet, Amrita’s commitment to disaster management goes beyond technology. The institution is deeply engaged in fostering community resilience through comprehensive programs. Initiatives like the Landslide Tracker, a collaborative mobile app, and the Amrita Kripa app for real-time disaster management underscore their dedication to involving the community. Additionally, Social Media Mining Platform focuses on harnessing social media data for swift and inclusive multi-hazard event detection, aiding rescue and relief operations.

 

By intertwining technological prowess with community empowerment, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham is revolutionizing disaster preparedness and mitigation. Through a decade-long journey of research, development, deployment, and operation, their AI- and IoT-driven systems have proven instrumental in not just saving lives, but also making communities self-reliant and resilient in the face of natural disasters. The experiences gleaned from real-world deployments in both the Western Ghats and the North-east Himalayas stand as a testament to the transformative power of technology when combined with a vision for societal betterment.

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Averted Disaster Award 2023

Runner Up

Aga Khan Agency for Habitat, Pakistan

Fighting Avalanche Risk in the High Mountains of Pakistan

Background 

The northern regions of Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral (GBC), home to some of the world’s largest mountain ranges including the Hindu Kush, the Himalayas and the Karakorum. These regions are characterised by rough and rugged terrain.  Over 2 million people living in narrow gorges, foothills and steep terrains, face multiple natural hazards.  Winters are long, harsh and isolating with heavy snowfall.  According to news reports, only this year, some villages/valleys remained cut off from the rest of the country for more than 15 days (Nagri, 2023).  The northern mountainous regions of Pakistan experience heavy snowfall and regularly witness snow avalanches during the winter and spring seasons (Gurung et al., 2023). As such these natural hazards pose a constant threat to human life, property, and critical infrastructure in these high-altitude mountain communities of GBC. 

The Aga Khan Agency for Habitat, Pakistan, an agency of the Aga Khan Development Network, works with these communities to reduce disaster risk and adapt to climate change.  Since 1992 AKAH has recorded more than 350 avalanche events in parts of GBC, resulting in the tragic loss of over 310 lives and causing numerous injuries. These avalanches have also left a trail of destruction, demolishing hundreds of houses, link roads, and critical infrastructure.

AKAH Community Volunteers during door-to-door Avalanche Awareness Education

Averting Avalanche Risks

To identify, understand and address this natural hazard, AKAHP’s technical experts conducted extensive Hazard Vulnerability & Risk Assessments (HVRA) of villages and towns across GBC. The assessment data reveals that over 250 villages across only four out of 12 districts of GBC are exposed to immediate avalanche risks. Alarmingly, more than 1,100 households are at direct risk from these avalanches. While it may not be possible to stop avalanche events, AKAHP has pioneered a community-driven approach to help minimize these risks.

AKAHP Winter Preparedness and Avalanche Readiness Programme (WPRAP)
WPARP is a key aspect of AKAH’s Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and mitigation framework. AKAH Pakistan started its snow avalanche-related interventions in 2012, initially focusing on 10 villages that were extremely vulnerable to snow avalanches. With the increasing frequency of snow avalanche disasters in the region, this project has been expanded to over 250 villages across GBC.

This seasonal preparedness programme is designed to monitor risks, generate early warnings and create awareness and develop community capacities (Nasab, 2021). As such, community-level response plans are developed to cater to avalanche incidents. Since the sustainability of this programme hinges on local actors, AKAHP has created and capacitated teams of trained village-level volunteers i.e., Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) to educate the local communities and to improve preparedness.

In addition to localized face-to-face training and awareness sessions, AKAH Pakistan has developed educational material like pamphlets, brochures, road signs and interactive videos (such as the one on the left) to educate communities about the key steps that one can take to protect themselves and their community from the threat of avalanches. 

Localised Weather Forecasting 

Remote mountain communities in Gilgit Baltistan and Chitral (GBC) lack accurate and timely weather forecasting and early warning systems. To fill this gap AKAH has established community-based Weather Monitoring Posts (WMPs), in 53 critical locations in remote valleys where avalanches pose a severe threat to human settlements. WMP volunteers trained by AKAH collect and report daily weather data on temperature, snowfall, wind, rain and more, as well as any data on avalanches that occurred.

AKAHP experts analyse this data and provide avalanche forecasts and alerts which are disseminated to communities by AKAHP’s through the local structures created as part of the disaster risk reduction framework. 

AKAH’s winter preparedness programme promotes a community-based approach to disaster risk management. Training local volunteers to monitor daily weather and in em ergency response in at-risk villages has improved awareness, preparedness and trust of the community and reduced the challenges related to timely communication and evacuation.  As the case of Ucho Gole in Chitral district shows, these efforts have helped save lives and build self-reliance.  

Avalanche mitigation (terracing) at Misgar, Gilgit-Baltistan

The Story of UCHO GOLE 

On 4th January 2016 in Ucho Gole, a village in Lower Chitral, the local weather monitoring and community emergency response volunteers received an avalanche alert from AKAH. One volunteer in the village rushed to disseminate the alert to 12 families who were living in the avalanche risk zone. Out of these 12, two (02) houses were in the extreme risk zone. When the volunteer reached one of the houses, the family was entertaining some guests who had come to visit them, having no idea about the looming danger. In the mountainous region, hospitality is elaborate and when the volunteer arrived, the family also offered him a hot cup of tea. Knowing the level of the imminent threat, sacrificing politeness, he refused the offer and convinced the family members and their guests to leave at once and evacuate to a safer location. Though they resisted initially, he was able to convince them to evacuate to safe place nearby just in time before an avalanche came down and destroyed their homes completely. Luckily, all of the family members, their guests and the volunteer (17 people) were saved and there was no regret in refusing tea.

Conclusion 

AKAH’s winter preparedness programme has helped in saving lives through improving community preparedness It has also strengthened coordination among disaster management authorities including provincial disaster management, and voluntary bodies. Whenever an avalanche occurs, AKAH’s Search and Rescue Team (SART) volunteers, mobilise with local authorities and Rescue 1122 as first responders. 

By community involvement and prioritizing the safety and well-being of those living in these vulnerable areas, we can make significant contributions towards reducing the risk and impact of avalanches in Pakistan’s mountainous regions. 

Protecting mountainous communities from deadly avalanches requires a proactive approach that emphasizes timely, effective emergency response and long-term resilience-building initiatives, empowering communities with the knowledge and capacities to prepare, protect and recover from disaster. 

Wooden tripods installed at the avalachne triggering point in Kishwakhat, Washich, Upper Chitral

Contributor:

Mehar Aftab, Communication Coordinator, Aga Khan Agency for Habitat Pakistan 

Syed Gohar Ali Shah, Manager, Partnerships, Aga Khan Agency for Habitat Pakistan

Sher Wali, Manager, Risk Anticipation, Aga Khan Agency for Habitat Pakistan 

Avalache terracing at the trigger point at Khishwakht Washich, Upper Chitral

Wooden tripods installed at the avalachne triggering point in Kishwakhat, Washich, Upper Chitral

References 

Gurung, D. R., Saratbekova, R., Sahim, S. A., Walizada, K. M., Wali, S., Karim, D., Dobariya, R., & Nasab, N. (2023). Community Resilience Through Local Action: AKAH’s Winter Preparedness and Avalanche Readiness Programme. In Springer eBooks (pp. 345–363). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-24541-1_16 

Nagri, J. (2023, February 24). Snowfall, avalanches cut off GB, Chitral villages. DAWN.COM. https://www.dawn.com/news/1738837 

Nasab, N. (2021, May 25). The Winter Preparedness and Avalanche Readiness Programme, a comprehensive avalanche preparedness plan in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan. Adaptation at Altitude. Retrieved June 24, 2023, from https://adaptationataltitude.org/solutions-portal/the-winter-preparedness-and-avalanche-readiness-programme-a-comprehensive-avalanche-preparedness-plan-in-afghanistan-pakistan-and-tajikistan#:~:text=The%20Winter%20Preparedness%20and%20Avalanche%20Readiness%20Programme%20is%20a%20comprehensive,in%20Afghanistan%2C%20Pakistan%20and%20Tajikistan

 

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Averted Disaster Award 2023

Special Recognition

BBC MEDIA ACTION

Averting disaster with the power of media: BBC MEDIA ACTION

As drought threatens traditional pastoral communities in Kenya and Somalia, BBC Media Action is supporting media programming that can help families adapt.

Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organisation forecast yet another below-normal rainfall for Kenya and Somalia – the sixth consecutive season of poor rains in the last three years. 

The resulting drought has left an estimated 3.5 million people severely food insecure, and devastated the herds of traditional pastoral groups. An estimated 1.5 million animals have perished from depleted pastures and diminished water sources. In Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana counties in Kenya, over 90% of open water sources had gone dry, as of spring 2022. 

But information can help people make critical decisions and cope. And in these three worst-affected counties, families and communities have reported that they have been able to start kitchen gardens, harvest rainwater, improve how they manage their herds, and take other measures to help adapt their lives and livelihoods – because of stories shared and information they have learned through radio.

Citizens fetching water

Joining up to provide essential weather and climate information

BBC Media Action has brought together media professionals and scientists to improve communication around essential weather and climate information, ensuring that it reflects people’s voices and needs. Our projects, Weather Wise – part of WISER, funded by the UK Met Office with back-funding from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; and Down2Earth, a consortium funded by the European Union – have built on tested methods of mentoring journalists and broadcasters using the editorial standards and principles of the BBC, while forging stronger connections with local climate scientists  and Met officers.

 

Mentoring session

Our first project, Weather Wise, addressed the existing disconnect between climate scientists, broadcasters, and their audiences. Climate scientists often produce technical research findings and projections, but farmers and pastoralists need information in simple, accessible local languages that they can apply to everyday challenges. A temperature provided in degrees Celsius means little to someone used to predicting weather using traditional methods and unaccustomed to reading a thermometer. And, despite efforts to improve weather and climate services in East Africa, our formative research found that their engagement with ordinary people is still relatively low due to the lack of reach, relevance, and accessibility.

Weather Wise approaches

Our Weather Wise project aimed to close this gap by improving access to, and knowledge of, climate and weather information amongst farmers, fishermen and pastoralists in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, through:

  • Training and mentoring:  Working with 10 local radio stations, we built the skills of media professionals from these three countries on effective communication of weather and climate information – ensuring they keep practical decision-making in mind. Working to editorial standards and values of the BBC we conducted in-house and remote training on topics such as appropriate formats, story packaging, and how to increase audience engagement.
  •  Relationship building: We supported  local journalists to build networks with climate scientists, Met officers, agricultural extension workers and others essential to telling stories about climate change. Over time we persuaded these officials that investing their time speaking to and co-producing content with local journalists was an effective strategy to reach their target audiences. 
  • Encouraging partnership: We held workshops to bring together journalists and climate scientists – many of whom had not previously worked together – to forge new partnerships and networks, encouraging the co-production of high-quality climate media content.
  • Audience feedback: We used our research with audiences to understand what radio content they found most useful and worked with the journalist to improve the content based on audience feedback. Our research showed station managers that their audience needed and appreciated this type of content and that they were using it to make decisions to improve their lives. 

 

Vivian Achwa interviewing a turkana lady(Tioko) in Loima Turkana

In our Down2Earth follow-up project, we worked with five broadcasters focused on Marsabit, Turkana and Samburu counties. For this project, we first built an understanding of media consumption, knowledge and attitudes in rural communities through research. We followed that with capacity-strengthening with local radio station partners through training, mentoring, equipment donation and building links with local climate scientists. Broadcasters then produced media content focusing on water scarcity, food insecurity and climate adaptation. 

What our research found

Following both projects, our researchers found that listeners to these radio programmes understood climate change and its impacts, and were able to list actions they learned which could help them improve their livelihoods. For example, pastoralists spoke about evacuating livestock and families at times of heavy rainfall and flooding. 

Maqueline(radio presenterproducer) demonstrating to listeners how to use a radio they won during a radio game in her program

While some doubted the accuracy of weather forecasts, all listeners surveyed said they understood the importance of listening, and how the forecast can help them prepare. And even when limited finances prevented greater actions, listeners said they were able to apply their learning to some extent to help prevent losses. 

As the drought continues, many in these communities are now benefitting from an improved ability to cope with extreme weather, from the information and inspiration they have received through radio. 

Stories from our communities

“Being a pastoralist, there are a lot of challenges… such as lack of water and pasture ..People need to be trained and to gain skills so (they can) cope with the situation. I would encourage the youth to use social media and radio stations to gain information, especially on climate change …I have really learned some skills…I started a kitchen garden, and water harvesting.” Wambaz, 25, an artist, radio presenter and farmer in Marsabit, Kenya

“The topics they discuss are relevant because they share information I need. I have learned a lot from the stories they share. I know that if I do certain things I will benefit, and I also know that if I continue to listen to it then it will benefit me, my household and my life in general.” Female, Taru, audience member of Serian FM

“I heard them saying on radio that seasons have changed and that we should not just plant maize as we mostly do but plant other crops like sweet potatoes and kunde (cowpeas) that don’t require a lot of rain and that mature within a short time. I also heard them say that we should move our livestock to safer grounds to prevent them from being washed away by flash floods. Before I never used to have this knowledge and used to be caught unaware with rains when livestock were grazing away from home.”— Male listener of Jangwani FM, Logologo, Kenya

Wambaz, 25, is an artist, radio presenter and farmer from a traditional pastoralist community in Marsabit, Kenya

Essential components

This intervention, carried out over several years amid severe drought, can be easily replicated and scaled up to cover vast areas. We know from experience that people in even the most remote and rural locations can be reached where they are, through radio. Even in areas with little to no access to media, the provision of solar-powered or wind-up radios, loaded with content and shared with listening groups, ensures communities are reached with information that can be shared with others in participants’ families, communities and social networks.  

Media and communication are essential in any climate action to reduce and mitigate risk. They work at speed, scale and low cost to reach audiences with timely, relevant and trusted information in languages they understand, to help them make critical decisions for themselves and their families. The information imparted in these projects will help families better cope with ongoing drought and extreme weather patterns – including through longer-term adjustments to their livelihoods for better economic security.

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Averted Disaster Award 2023

Special Recognition

Prepared International (PPI)

The Professional Dialogue:

Strengthening Cross-Border Cooperation through Disaster Diplomacy

The current war activities between Israel and the Hamas underlines how crucial it is to find ways to save lives across conflict lines and support the civilian population. The “Professional Dialogue on emergency preparedness and lifesaving between Jordan, Israel and Palestine”, also known as the “Professional Dialogue”, is a unique disaster risk diplomacy scheme aimed at strengthening cross border disaster preparedness and response coordination in the Jordan, Israel, and Palestine (JIP) area with the end goal of saving and protecting lives. This intervention has significantly impacted the disaster-prone area and the conflict-affected communities in JIP, by utilizing the principles of disaster diplomacy to foster collaboration and address the unique challenges of the region.

Origins and Goal

The project was founded in 2013 by the Director of Prepared International (PPI) – a expert group founded by members of the humanitarian emergency management field to support communities – Dr. Albrecht Beck, while working for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA). Dr. Beck started the negotiations in 2011, a time in which communication between the three emergency management systems was almost non-existent. These efforts translated into a series of bilateral training courses, kindly facilitated by Dr. Beck on behalf of UN OCHA, which initiated the disaster diplomacy project to better prepare the region and international assistance for a natural hazard event in the region, specifically, a large-scale earthquake event. As statistics demonstrate, there is a strong probability of an earthquake (M 6+) to occur along the Dead Sea Fault (DSF) Zone over the current decade, and the 2023 earthquake on the Türkiye – Syrian border is thought to have accelerated the likability of such an event to happen. Ultimately, the project aims to protect vulnerable communities in the JIP region, facilitate local cooperation, and enable international teams to assist affected populations and enable response in no-man’s land. Day to day cooperation in simple accidents, as well as coordination in mass-disaster events and during conflict, are all part of the dialogue’s focus.

Focus and Achievements

The project focuses on further strengthening collaboration among the three entities in disaster preparedness, supporting regional capacity building for earthquakes and floods, and supporting the response preparedness level of the humanitarian actors on the ground. Efforts towards this end culminated in March 2023, with the conduct of a large-scale field exercise in JIP, marking a milestone during the tenth anniversary of the dialogue. It was during this time that the three local entities cooperated with one another and the international community with utmost respect, and with the common understanding that without regional collaboration no one could unilaterally respond effectively and deliver timely humanitarian assistance to affected populations. Common SOP for enabling assistance across borders in the region were agreed on. Authorities came together several times for Table-Top simulations. Most importantly, such milestone was followed up by a second agreement on further solidifying the diplomatic efforts worth a decade of time. Because of this, Prepared International thanks each stakeholder for their outstanding commitment and perseverance through all this time, and will continue to support the three parties.

Key Events and Lessons

The exercise in March 2023 provided an opportunity to gain important lessons to implement in the next phases of the project implementation.

  •   The cycle of conflict and disaster is often revered when it comes to the growing number of failed and failing states. Without strategically designed disaster diplomacy, it will not be possible to break this cycle.
  •   It is critical to prepare disaster risk experts for the diplomatic work around such projects. For diplomacy projects heavily focused on disaster risk, diplomats are not the most suitable candidates.
  •   Trust is everything. From the beginning, it is key to establish trust between all stakeholders and to prepare them to leave their comfort zones. It is helpful to have one focal point in the project, with one line of contact who can organize, manage the project and see the big picture, just like PPI has done for the Professional Dialogue

·   Finally, the best way to approach such a project is through a two-ways approach: top-down and bottom-up. Bringing together high-level personnel, who accept and learn to trust the project, and operational personnel, who work on the field level and cooperate with other stakeholders, is beneficial in reaching all levels of governance.

Promoting Cooperation and Understanding

This disaster risk diplomacy intervention allowed for developing a sense of mutual understanding and cooperation, thus enabling international teams to reach the Palestinian population during the response phase of a disaster. This milestone has provided a foundation for numerous preparedness projects in the region, since at the very beginning, most of the organizations were still “enemies”. In fact, contact was largely forbidden, which severely hindered any possibility of communication and cooperation during a disaster. Nowadays, after ten years and despite political tensions in the region, direct cooperation across conflict lines in the emergency and preparedness community takes place daily.

Disaster Diplomacy and Civil Protection Cooperation

The role disaster diplomacy played in all this in undoubted. Disaster diplomacy, at its core, is the utilization of disasters as a catalyst for diplomatic engagement, conflict resolution, and cooperation. It recognizes that during times of crises, political barriers can be transcended, and common interests in saving lives can create opportunities for dialogue and collaboration. Civil protection cooperation is the result in this case, of diplomatic efforts. It refers to the collaborative efforts and measures taken by different governmental entities to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters, coordinating with emergency management organizations, first responders, and humanitarian organizations.

Having worked in the field of disaster diplomacy and civil protection cooperation for years, PPI became a leading promoter in the fields. With a deep understanding of the complexities surrounding disaster management, PPI offers expertise in various areas, including civil protection, disaster diplomacy, climate change activities, violence and conflict resolution, food security and health. The organization’s comprehensive approach encompasses strategic planning, risk assessment, capacity development, policy development, investment plans, and more. PPI recognizes the significance of disaster risk diplomacy as a crucial aspect of its work, understanding that effective disaster management goes beyond technical solutions. By integrating disaster risk diplomacy into their projects, PPI aims to foster collaboration, dialogue, and cooperation among diverse stakeholders, including governments, international organizations, and local communities. Especially now, in times of climate-change, professional, well-planned disaster diplomacy and work in fragile and conflict-striven areas is getting more important than ever. The current situation in the Middle East even more shows the need for professional approaches, but also for donor support for it.

Albrecht Beck, Managing Director of Prepared International, Disaster Risk Diplomacy Expert

Antonia Vignolo, Project Officer in Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation

PRESS RELEASE

The Averted Disaster Award Announces Amrita Center for Wireless Networks & Applications as 2023 Winner

12 October 2023

Berlin, Germany, October 12, 2023 – The Averted Disaster Award (ADA) today named the Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications as the winner of the 2023 ADA award for outstanding Disaster Risk Management (DRM) intervention. This prestigious recognition was announced at the 11th Global Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action, held in Berlin, during a three-day conference. Created in December 2021, the Averted Disaster Award is an annual competition that seeks to bring visibility to successful DRM programs and policies around the world.

The Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications

The Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications earned the recognition for their work integrating landslide early warning technology and engaging communities for emergency preparedness and resilience in the Himalayas & Western Ghats regions of India. The organization has effectively predicted landslides and saved lives through their communication and emergency training within affected communities. The Amrita Center deployed the world’s first wireless sensor network for landslide monitoring and early warning in Munnar, Western Ghats, and Sikkim, Himalayas. Amrita developed a strategy predicated on bridging the gap between technology and impacted communities. Scientists worked with community members to understand the challenges of living in landslide prone areas and collaborated and co-designed solutions with them. The community members hold social responsibility and actively participate in taking steps for monitoring and reacting when landslide dangers are imminent. The collaborative approach resulted in better technology that protects communities and saves lives. While the number of landslides in the region has increased in recent years, countless lives have been saved as a result of their early warnings and community engagement.

David Lallemant, co-founder of the ADA and an Assistant Professor at Nanyang Technological University, expressed, “The Averted Disaster Award’s objective is to bring attention to effective risk reduction interventions that often go unnoticed. India, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, faces a significant landslide threat in areas like Munnar and its surroundings. With the Averted Disaster Award, our aim is to illuminate impactful initiatives such as this one, facilitating their replication, adaptation, and scaling in communities that require them.”

Shanna McClain, Disasters Program Manager at NASA, ADA Selection Committee Member and host of the award ceremony said, “Amrita’s collaborative approach bringing together scientists and the community is an example of best practice in developing effective disaster risk technology.” McClain added, “When at-risk communities are engaged as implementing partners from the outset, they are more likely to follow emergency guidance and develop long-term community resilience.”

The award ceremony featured the premier of a short documentary film titled “Living Without Fear”, which highlights the achievements of the award-winning organization. The documentary can be viewed by clicking on the following link.

The ADA also announced today the Runner-up recipient of the 2023 Averted Disaster Award as well as two additional recognitions. The ADA named the Aga Khan Agency for Habitat Pakistan as the 2023 ADA Runner-up in recognition of their Winter Preparedness Program, a community-based initiative focused on avalanche monitoring and risk reduction in the mountainous regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral. Addressing the acute lack of weather forecasting systems in these areas, AKAH has established community-based weather monitoring posts (WMP) to monitor the risk. The Winter Preparedness Programme combines technology-driven data with community-led organization to effectively monitor the potential threats of snow avalanches during the winter season. When predefined thresholds are reached, volunteers spring into action to disseminate critical information, facilitating the safe evacuation of at-risk populations and ultimately saving lives.

Aga Khan Agency for Habitat

Additionally, the ADA presented Special Recognition for Disaster Risk Communication and Diplomacy to two outstanding organizations. BBC Media Action received this accolade for their East Africa Weather Wise program, a media and communication initiative dedicated to climate action, with a specific focus on aiding drought-affected communities in Kenya. In East Africa, BBC Media Action collaborates closely with local broadcasters and climate scientists to build relationships and enhance weather and climate services. Amidst devastating drought conditions that have severely affected pastoralist herds and left 3.5 million people in dire need of food, families and communities in the three most affected counties of Kenya have reported that strengthened radio programming has been instrumental in their ability to survive and adapt. This has included initiatives such as rainwater harvesting, improved livestock management, and other livelihood adaptations.

BBC Media Action

Furthermore, the ADA acknowledged Prepared International (PPI) for their significant contributions to Disaster Risk Diplomacy among Jordan, Israel, and Palestine, with a central goal of enhancing cross-border disaster preparedness and response coordination within the region. In light of recent developments, their endeavors have acquired even greater significance. This expert dialogue on emergency readiness and life-saving strategies involving Jordan, Israel, and Palestine seeks to fortify regional collaboration for a unified response, particularly in the event of a large-scale earthquake.

Prepared International (PPI)

To conclude the event, Shanna McClain has announced the official opening of the application period for the Averted Disaster Award 2024. The Averted Disaster Award welcomes submissions from individuals, project teams, and organizations of all sizes, across various regions and industries, whose effective DRM (Disaster Risk Management) interventions have gone unnoticed due to their success. The nominator does not need to have been directly involved in the intervention. The submission deadline is January 12, 2024.

About the ADA:

The Averted Disaster Award recognizes proactive interventions implemented around the world that help ensure that communities continue to function, thrive, and recover quickly in the face of disaster risk. The Averted Disaster Award is an initiative of the Understanding Risk community and is supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).

For more information concerning the ADA, contact info@averteddisasteraward.org

About the 11th Global Dialogue Platforms on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action:

 

The 2023 Global Dialogue Platform, held both in Berlin and online from October 10 to 12, played host to various significant events. Among them was the announcement ceremony for the Averted Disaster Award. Furthermore, the platform featured a series of strategic workshops designed to delve into the ways anticipatory action can contribute to and play a pivotal role in advancing global initiatives aimed at safeguarding people from the escalating hazards they face. These initiatives encompass the UN’s Early Warning for All (EW4All) program, as well as the efforts of the G7 and V20 under the Global Shield initiative. Eminent experts, practitioners, and high-ranking government representatives actively participated in these workshops, enriching discussions and collaborating with attendees to shape the resulting recommendations.

Aligned with the Anticipation Hub’s overarching strategy, the Global Dialogue Platforms adopt a people-centered approach to foster collective ownership of the anticipatory action process. These events draw upon a wealth of knowledge derived from diverse sources, spanning the realms of science, policy, and practical experience in the field of anticipatory action.

The Global Dialogue Platform is proudly hosted by the Anticipation Hub, a collaborative venture between the German Red Cross, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. The platform’s organization is a joint effort involving key partners, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), Start Network, and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), with valuable support from the German Federal Foreign Office.

Averted Disaster Award 2023 – Winner

Amrita Center for Wireless Networks & Applications

For their intervention

“Building a Resilient Community by Integrating Technology and Social Science for Disaster Early Warning”

In recent years, India has been grappling with an escalating frequency of natural disasters, and among these, landslides have emerged as a particularly impactful threat. The Himalayan and Western Ghats regions in the country are especially vulnerable to landslides, leading to numerous casualties each year. To address this pressing challenge, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, India, has pioneered a groundbreaking solution – AI-enabled Internet of Things (IoT) Landslide Early Warning System (Amrita-LEWS).

Landslides triggered by factors such as extreme rainfall, improper drainage, and human development activities have wreaked havoc on regions like Munnar in the southern state of Kerala. For years 2018 through 2022, the Munnar community has faced perilous situations during the monsoon season, jeopardizing their lives, livelihoods, and security. To combat this, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham introduced the Amrita-LEWS, an innovative system consisting of more than 150 sensors strategically placed underground, ranging from the surface level to bedrock.

This system is a sophisticated amalgamation of AI, IoT, and data analytics. It continuously monitors an array of parameters – from rainfall, seismic actions, and moisture levels to pore pressure, vibrations, and inclinations. The collected data is then analyzed to predict the onset of landslides with impressive accuracy.

Notably, the system incorporates AI and machine learning techniques to forecast landslides with a lead time of 3 to 24 hours, thus providing a crucial window for evacuation and disaster preparedness.

What sets the Amrita-LEWS apart is its ability to monitor various types of parameters and offer multi-scale warnings for different types of landslides. By seamlessly integrating meteorological, geological, and hydrological data through an IoT framework, the system delivers timely and reliable early warnings. The technology has been rigorously tested, validated, and refined through real-world deployments, ensuring its effectiveness.

A more advanced iteration of this system has been operational in Chandmari, Sikkim, since 2018. Covering over 32 hectares, this extended version employs an array of geotechnical and geophysical sensors to monitor factors like moisture levels, pore water pressure, ground vibrations, tilting, and strain. Weather stations equipped with environmental sensors keep track of rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The real-time data from these sensors is transmitted to Amrita’s Control Center, where it undergoes detailed analysis to generate accurate predictions and facilitate informed decision-making.

This technological marvel hasn’t just remained confined to laboratories – it has proven its mettle in the field. Amrita’s IoT system has successfully issued early warnings for landslides on numerous occasions, including critical instances like July 2009, August 2011, August 2013, and more recently, in July and August of 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. These timely alerts have played a pivotal role in safeguarding the lives and properties of the Munnar community.

Two striking examples highlight the system’s effectiveness: In August 2020 and August 2022, regional landslide warnings were issued for the Western Ghats, specifically Munnar. In both instances, devastating landslides occurred within a mere 20 kilometers of the deployment sites shortly after the warnings. These incidents stand as testament to the reliability and accuracy of Amrita’s early warning system.

Yet, Amrita’s commitment to disaster management goes beyond technology. The institution is deeply engaged in fostering community resilience through comprehensive programs. Initiatives like the Landslide Tracker, a collaborative mobile app, and the Amrita Kripa app for real-time disaster management underscore their dedication to involving the community. Additionally, Social Media Mining Platform focuses on harnessing social media data for swift and inclusive multi-hazard event detection, aiding rescue and relief operations.

By intertwining technological prowess with community empowerment, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham is revolutionizing disaster preparedness and mitigation. Through a decade-long journey of research, development, deployment, and operation, their AI- and IoT-driven systems have proven instrumental in not just saving lives, but also making communities self-reliant and resilient in the face of natural disasters. The experiences gleaned from real-world deployments in both the Western Ghats and the North-east Himalayas stand as a testament to the transformative power of technology when combined with a vision for societal betterment.

Congratulations Amrita Center for Wireless Networks & Applications

For more information please visit the Amrita website.

Averted Disaster Award to Announce 2023 Winners at the 11th Global Dialogue Platform

25 September 2023

The Averted Disaster Award, an innovative competition that brings visibility to successful disaster-risk-mitigation interventions around the world, will announce its 2023 winners at the 11th Global Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action. The award ceremony on day three of the conference will include a documentary film about the winners.  

Launched in 2022, the Averted Disaster Award uses counterfactual analysis to shed light on ‘what might have been’ had a risk-reduction intervention not been implemented. It seeks to recognize successful initiatives that often go unnoticed precisely because of their success.  

Prof. David Lallemant, Head of the Disaster Analytics for Society Lab at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, and a founding member of the award, said: “While the news often highlights catastrophes, it doesn’t focus on the buildings that stayed standing due to earthquake-resistant building codes, the wildfires avoided due to successful forest management, or the early warning systems that saved lives in a typhoon.”  

The ceremony will be hosted by Dr Shanna McClain, Disasters Program Manager at NASA and a member of the award’s selection committee. Dr McClain said: “Since we launched in 2022, the Averted Disaster Award has served as a platform to raise global awareness of the important work of many thousands of people around the world who are saving lives and protecting property through successful disaster-risk-management interventions.”  

She added: “There are many remarkable initiatives out there that prove unequivocally that we can adapt to and manage the many global challenges we face from natural hazards and climate change. We are excited to share the 2023 winners and showcase their best practices and innovations in disaster risk management.”  

The Averted Disaster Award ceremony will take place at 16:10 on 12 October 2023 at the Global Dialogue Platform, held in Berlin, Germany, and hosted by the Anticipation Hub. Members of the winning intervention will be present at the ceremony and available to the press.  

 

About the Averted Disaster Award 

The Averted Disaster Award is the premier recognition of successful disaster mitigation interventions that go unnoticed precisely because of their success. In the world of disaster risk management, success means ‘nothing happens’ and, as a result, can cause policy-makers and society at large to undervalue the importance of proactive intervention. The Averted Disaster Award sheds light on successes in disaster risk management and ‘what might have been’ to recognize the outstanding work of those who invest in measures that keep our communities and world safe. 

About the Anticipation Hub 

The Anticipation Hub was launched in December 2020 as a joint initiative of the IFRC, the German Red Cross and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Through its website, working groups and publications, the Anticipation Hub provides a space for people to learn and exchange knowledge about anticipatory action. It also hosts and convenes the annual Global Dialogue Platforms on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action, as well as the Regional Dialogue Platforms that take place in Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Americas. As of September 2023, the Anticipation Hub has 116 partners from more than 40 countries.  

www.anticipation-hub.org 

About the 11th Global Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action 

This year’s Global Dialogue Platform will take place from 10 to 12 October 2023, in Berlin and online. As well as hosting the Averted Disaster Award presentation ceremony, it will stage a series of strategic workshops to explore how anticipatory action can support, and play a major role in achieving, some of the global initiatives to protect people from the rising threat of hazards. These include the UN’s Early Warning for All initiative and the G7 / V20 Global Shield. Experts, practitioners and high-level government representatives will be part of these workshops to inform discussions and, with participants, guide the recommendations that arise.  

Aligned with the Anticipation Hub’s strategy, the Global Dialogue Platforms follow a people-centred approach to create shared ownership of the anticipatory action process. The events are inclusive, promoting and encouraging diversity; they also draw extensively on the different types of knowledge about anticipatory action that are generated through science, policy and practice. In 2022, the Regional and Global Dialogue Platforms brought together more than 2,000 participants from 140 countries.   

https://events.anticipation-hub.org/global-dialogue-platform-2023/about/ 

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